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What The Donovan And McGuire Campaign Ads Say About The State Of The NYC Mayor's Race
By
Elizabeth Kim
Published Feb 11, 2021
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By
Elizabeth Kim
Published Feb 11, 2021
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In what could become a turning point in the New York City mayoral race, this week Shaun Donovan and Ray McGuire released the first major ads in an attempt to break through a crowded field of candidates.
The two candidates have struggled to stand out in an election year where traditional campaigning has been disrupted due to the pandemic. Most of the candidates have curtailed in-person events, but are participating in a packed schedule of virtual forums.
Donovan, who worked as the budget director and housing secretary for President Barack Obama, appears to be taking the biggest risk with a television ad campaign. The ads began running on cable and digital platforms on Tuesday, and the campaign has so far bought up $75,000 worth of cable advertising space for this week, according to the NY Times. However, a spokesperson for Donovan said that the campaign intends to spend at least $1 million on ads.
McGuire, the former Wall Street executive, has launched the first of what will be a series of digital ads. Kate Conway, the creative director of Assemble the Agency, the company behind the videos, said the total cost of the ad campaign was in the six figures. The ads will appear on YouTube and Pandora. The campaign will also pay for the ads to run on media outlets like the Daily News and the New York Times. Facebook and Twitter have a ban on political advertising, but the campaign can still share the ads on those social media platforms.
"These are both gambles and big money gambles," said Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic consultant who is not working with any of the campaigns.
On Thursday, the McGuire campaign also released a two-minute digital ad featuring an endorsement from Gwen Carr, the mother of Eric Garner, whose death at the hands of a New York City police officer helped spark a national movement around racist and violent policing. In addition to Mark Skidmore, the chief executive of Assemble the Agency, the ad was created by John Del Cecato, who was behind Mayor Bill de Blasio's 2013 campaign ad featuring his son, Dante, the campaign said. Experts viewed the de Blasio ad as catapulting him into a frontrunner in that race.
Of the two, Donovan, who has struggled to fundraise, stands to lose the most by spending down his cash with more than four months to go until the primary. His campaign failed to raise enough money to qualify for the city’s matching funds program during the January filing deadline.
His 30-second ad begins with a clip of President Obama introducing him as his nominee for housing secretary. It goes on to feature a series of black-and-white photographs that show Donovan in various crisis moments, standing alongside Obama, former Vice President Joe Biden, and Governor Andrew Cuomo. (Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who Donovan has sought to distance himself from, is barely noticeable in a profile shot.)
Sheinkopf said Donovan's ad seemed intended to attract two sets of Democratic voters—those who love Barack Obama and those who love Joe Biden. In the ad, Donovan describes himself as the "change candidate."
"Is it evocative? Yes. Is it likely to move voters? 50/50," he said.
Sheinkopf said both ad strategies struck him as flawed—Donovan's television ad reaches mainly political elites—airing on CNN, MSNBC, and NY1—which may not be enough to create excitement around his candidacy, while McGuire's digital-only ad fails to reach some of the older African American voters he needs to win.
"Both of these men are misdirected," he said. "The question is who will pay the price for their misdirection?"
David Birdsell, dean of the Baruch College School of Public Affairs, called Donovan's ad "a credible effort and smart politics to be first on the airwaves in a campaign season that will severely curtail face-to-face politicking."
He added: "If you’re running in the Democratic primary and your name isn’t Stringer, Yang, or perhaps Adams, name recognition has to be at the top of your agenda."
Listen to Elizabeth Kim's report on WNYC:
McGuire's team has elected to take a different strategy, focusing their reach on the internet. The first two digital ads consist of 30-second videos, one called "Comeback" and another titled "Now You Know," which opens with a voice over by New York City filmmaker Spike Lee, a donor who also narrated McGuire's campaign launch video. Both employ a "high-energy editing" technique of fast cuts as well as catchy beat-driven music.
Conway said the goal of the ads was "to introduce Ray to New Yorkers who don’t know a lot about his background." Both chart McGuire's rise from the son of a single mother in Dayton, Ohio to becoming a Harvard graduate and one of the most prominent Black executives on Wall Street.
Neal Kwatra, a Democratic political consultant who is not working with any of the campaigns, gave the ad a favorable review.
"Candidates like Shaun and Ray have to tell their story," he said. "Part of that storytelling is about an emotional connection with voters that says here's my motivation for doing this, here's my personal story, here's where I come from and what informs my values."
Most political experts have said the race is still wide open and up for grabs, especially with the introduction of ranked choice voting, where voters will for the first time be able to rank mayoral candidates as opposed to choosing only one.
However, a recent poll by Core Decision Analytics showed former presidential contender Andrew Yang may have an early lead: 84% of those surveyed said they had heard of him and 28% selected him as their top candidate if the primary were held today.
He was followed by Brooklyn President Eric Adams, who saw 17% of those polled ranking him as their top choice and had name recognition among 60%. City Comptroller Scott Stringer got the nod from 13% of those surveyed, with 66% name recognition.
Donovan tied Kathryn Garcia and Maya Wiley for third place in name recognition (33%), while only 8% said they would definitely vote for him.
McGuire fared poorly in the poll, with 25% of those surveyed saying they knew his name, and only 2% saying they would vote for him.
But some have dismissed the poll, noting that it is too early to make a prediction.
"The reality is folks are going to tune in later," Kwatra said. "The spring will be a pivotal time when more New Yorkers will be vaccinated and the city will be coming out of its slumber."
Tagged
mayoral election
election 2021
Elizabeth Kim
Elizabeth Kim is a reporter on the People and Power desk who covers mayoral power. She previously covered the pandemic, housing, redevelopment and public spaces. A native of Queens, she speaks fluent Mandarin. Got a tip? Email [email protected]
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