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Report: NYC Not Dead Yet, But Leaders Must Do More To Keep It Alive
By
Jake Offenhartz
Published Oct 15, 2020
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GRETCHEN ROBINETTE / GOTHAMIST
By
Jake Offenhartz
Published Oct 15, 2020
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New York City's fiscal forecast is grim and, at least in the short-term, getting grimmer. The official citywide unemployment rate is 16 percent, with some sources pegging the real figure at twice that. Roughly half of NYC restaurants and bars could go under in the next six months. Transit authorities have resorted to increasingly apocalyptic metaphors to describe the MTA's budget woes.
But according to a new analysis from the Regional Plan Association, the city's pandemic-induced plunge into the financial abyss is far from inevitable. In a 26-page study published on Thursday, the non-profit civic group laid out some reasons for hope, even optimism, about our not-yet-crumbling metropolis.
"New York City is incredibly resilient, but what we tend to do in the middle of a crisis is to underestimate that resiliency," Chris Jones, the Senior Vice President at RPA, told Gothamist. "We're trying to provide some balance to the narrative that New York City is spiraling into decline by looking at what the facts are telling us."
The facts, as highlighted by RPA, suggest that early assumptions linking urban density and mass transit to the spread of coronavirus were unfounded. On the contrary, density and public transit will be significant assets to New York's recovery — provided the latter is properly funded.
Dire warnings about surging street violence bely the fact that overall crime rates remain at historic lows, and have not changed from last year, the report notes. Gun crimes did increase this summer, but are still far below their 1990 peak.
And despite what you may have read on LinkedIn, there is little evidence that New Yorkers are permanently fleeing the city in droves. "Much of the current relocation is temporary, a lot is driven by cost differences that are likely to narrow, and the ability and desire to work from anywhere is limited," the report states.
Already, there are signs that the rate of defections is abating, and little reason to fear a long-term outbound migration, according to Jones.
Still, the report notes that New York is facing a slate of unprecedented challenges that have only exacerbated longstanding health and economic inequities. According to the urban planners, the future prospects for the region will depend on the near-term policy choices made at the city, state, and federal level.
Perhaps the single biggest threat to the city's recovery would be the further degradation of infrastructure, and particularly public transit. Facing a budget shortfall of $14 billion through the end of next year, the MTA has requested billions in federal aid from the Trump administration that has yet to materialize. Without that money, New York's state's fiscal watchdog warned this week of "the end of regional public transit as we have known it."
The RPA also found that widespread evictions for both residents and businesses will have a snowballing effect without proper short-term relief — something that tenant advocates accuse Governor Andrew Cuomo of withholding.
On the municipal level, the planner called on the city to create more bike and bus lanes, while designing more streets for people. Mayor Bill de Blasio, meanwhile, has ignored the advice of his own transportation experts, and declined to provide updates on dedicated bus lanes he announced months ago.
Though the mayor promised three weeks ago to unveil a series of big ideas to aid the city's recovery, those proposals have yet to materialize.
Beyond the tangible policy changes, the RPA argues that it's critical that officials address the crisis of confidence among New Yorkers, while differentiating the real threats from unsubstantiated fears about the city's recovery. On that point, the report finds that New York's elected representatives have a long way to go.
"One of the central problems is that people are getting mixed messages from each level of government, from Washington, Albany and City Hall," Jones said. "It feels like there’s no coordinated response to this, and that really shakes peoples' confidence."
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rpa
governor cuomo
mayor bill de blasio
Jake Offenhartz
Jake Offenhartz is a former Gothamist reporter.
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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
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