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Put away those scarves. New York City is in for a mild fall and winter.
By
Rosemary Misdary
Published Sep 21, 2026
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By
Rosemary Misdary
Published Sep 21, 2026
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New York City may be getting a second summer.
Fall begins with the equinox on Tuesday, but don't pull out the scarves and jackets just yet. The National Weather Service is predicting higher-than-average temperatures for fall, with roughly average rainfall for the metropolitan area through October.
The warmer-than-normal weather will continue into the later part of the year with predictions of above-average precipitation beginning in the late fall and extending into the winter months.
Government meteorologists said the weather patterns are influenced by El Niño, a weather pattern linked to the dramatic warming of Pacific waters.
“ El Niño is going to be the main climate driver,” said National Weather Service meteorologist James Connolly. “ I'm expecting above-normal temperatures and precipitation, and this is a typical El Niño-type signal that we get.”
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from August through October, is also expected to be mild.
“For hurricanes, the season as a whole has been very quiet, and that's typical during an El Niño,” said Anthony Artusa, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
But Artusa is not ruling out the possibility of a late-season storm in October, like post-tropical cyclone Sandy in 2012. He said accurate predictions this far in advance are difficult to make.
“I emphasize it's not a given, and it's really more of a wild card, but it is something that we cannot rule out completely,” Artusa said.
The El Niño influence also makes snowfall less likely in New York City. With warmer air, precipitation is more likely to fall as rain.
”With a very strong El Niño that almost certainly would say that we expect reduced snow amounts, reduced chances for big snow events,” Artusa said. “Of course you can never rule out one major storm.”
El Niño systems occur every two to seven years, but they have been intensified by climate change. When this happens, the water in the Pacific Ocean near the equator, just south of Hawaii, warms significantly. The affected patch of ocean is larger than the United States.
This year, the El Niño effect is “very strong,” according to the National Weather Service, which observed record-high sea surface temperatures last month.
“El Niño has a footprint on the world,” said Michael Rosencrans, meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center at the National Weather Service. “ You're talking about millions of square miles of the ocean that is now dramatically warmer.”
As the weather continues to cool with the approach of winter, daylight hours will also wane.
On the day of the fall equinox, Sept. 22, there will be an equal number of day and evening hours. After that, the days will get shorter and the nights will get longer.
Each day after the equinox, the sun will set earlier. By the end of this month, the sun will set nearly an hour later than it did on the first day of September.
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Rosemary Misdary
Rosemary is health & science reporter. Got a tip? Email [email protected] or Signal 646-544-9524.
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