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NYC early voting dips compared to 2025, but spikes in majority-Black districts
By
Brigid Bergin
and
Joe Hong
Published Nov 2, 2026 at 6:06 p.m. ET
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(Photo by Dave Sanders-Pool/Getty Images)
By
Brigid Bergin
and
Joe Hong
Published Nov 2, 2026 at 6:06 p.m. ET
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The Mamdani bump did not extend into 2026.
A year ago, a record number of New Yorkers turned out for early voting, fueled by an uptick in young and first-time voters energized by Zohran Mamdani’s campaign for mayor.
This year, the numbers tell a different story. Early voting in New York City dipped by about 13% compared to last year’s surge. The drop was due to lackluster turnout among early voters between the ages of 18 and 24, since 15,000 fewer young people showed up to vote early.
Analysts say the numbers bode well for Democrats, who have voted early at seven times the rate of Republicans in New York City. Early-voter turnout among Democrats dropped by 3% from last year, but turnout among Republicans dipped even more with a 15% decline.
Gov. Kathy Hochul, who’s hoping to fend off a challenge from Republican Bruce Blakeman, has campaigned aggressively throughout the five boroughs, particularly over the nine days of early voting, making multiple appearances with Mamdani to try to animate the electorate that sent him to office. But some of the drops in the city’s early voting turnout were in parts of the city where Mamdani overperformed last year.
Neighborhoods in Brooklyn that are considered part of the Commie Corridor saw the biggest drops in voter turnout. Assembly District 53, which includes East Williamsburg and Bushwick, saw a decline of 34% drop in early voter turnout
“ No one is Mamdani,” said Fordham political scientist Christina Greer. “He has a certain level of populism, like a Donald Trump, that people come out for the individual.”
Districts that saw the biggest increases in voter turnout compared to last year were largely Black majority districts, in keeping with a national trend that’s seen higher rates of Black early voter turnout across the country.
Analysts say the turnout should serve as a reminder that even as the Democratic Party expands its tent, Black voters remain a crucial constituency.
“ Black voters tend to be a stronghold for the Democratic Party and will continue to be that even with the rise of the DSA,” Brooklyn-based Democratic strategist Lupe Todd-Medina said. “ I'm not gonna be surprised to see some lines out the door because there are still those that want to vote on Election Day.”
Todd-Medina, who worked for Hochul’s 2022 campaign and Lieutenant Governor candidate Adrienne Adams’s mayoral campaign last year, said Black voters are energized to come out to the polls for people like Adams, state Attorney General Letitia James and in parts of Central Brooklyn, to re-elect Rep. Hakeem Jeffries.
Jeffries could become the first Black Speaker of the House and the first Speaker from New York City if Democrats win majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Turnout in Assembly District 58 in Central Brooklyn, which overlaps with Jeffries’ congressional district, had the largest increase in early voting, with a 60% increase compared to 2025. The district spans the neighborhoods of East Flatbush, Canarsie and Brownsville. The district population is nearly 80% Black, according to census data analysis by the CUNY Mapping Service at the City University of New York's Graduate Center.
Southeast Queens is home to a concentration of Black voters who are also disproportionately Democratic voters. Districts there turned out in lower numbers last year but saw increases in voter turnout so far in this election.
Assembly District 29 in Queens saw an increase of over 47% in early voting compared to last year. The district includes neighborhoods like Jamaica, Hollis and Springfield Gardens. The neighboring Assembly District 31 also saw one of the steepest increases in turnout, with a 40% increase. The district contains the Queens neighborhoods of Far Rockaway, South Ozone Park and Rosedale.
Overall turnout was also up among older voters. The number of voters 55 and older increased by 14% compared to last year. Voters 75 and older saw an increase of 23%.
Overall, early voting turnout is up in the state and citywide compared to four years ago, as voters continue to acclimate to a system that was first introduced in 2019. Early voting turnout statewide increased from 1.2 million to two million compared to 2022, and in the city from more than 432,600 voters to 690,000.
Last year’s surge in early votes continued into Election Day, with New York City seeing the highest turnout for a municipal election in more than five decades.
Greer said the Mamdani effect helped catapult democratic socialist and left-leaning candidates who were aligned with him ideologically in the June primary. The mayor was an ardent supporter of Claire Valdez, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Brad Lander, who are all expected to win their congressional races on Tuesday.
However, Greer said it may be harder to motivate voters on the left who see Hochul as too moderate, despite Mamdani’s endorsement.
“ There's a certain special sauce that Mamdani has that Hochul doesn't, and he's doing his part as a good Democrat to sort of say, ‘Listen, we're not the same ideologically, we do have some differences, but, you know, I endorse this woman because she's exponentially better than the alternative.’”
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Brigid Bergin
Brigid Bergin is an award-winning senior reporter on the People and Power desk. She is fiercely committed to telling stories that help people engage and support democracy. In 2022, she hosted a live, ten-week call-in politics show ahead of the midterm elections called The People's Guide to Power. Brigid's reporting in 2017 included some of the first coverage of a political newcomer now known as AOC. In 2016, she broke the news of a voter purge in Brooklyn just days before New York’s presidential primary, triggering city, state and federal investigations. Brigid also guest hosts The Brian Lehrer Show and All Of It. She graduated from the University at Albany and the CUNY Newmark School of Journalism. Got a tip? Email [email protected] or Signal 917-723-4719.
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Joe Hong
Joe Hong is the investigative data reporter for WNYC and Gothamist. He previously covered K-12 education for several newsrooms across California. His reporting has led to local reforms in juvenile justice system as well as a state law requiring universal screening for dyslexia. Got a tip? Email [email protected]
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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
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