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In deep blue New York state, GOP hopefuls plot for a red wave in 2026
By
Jimmy Vielkind
Published Mar 17, 2025
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Lev Radin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images
By
Jimmy Vielkind
Published Mar 17, 2025
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Republicans have faced long odds to win statewide office in New York for decades. The state has been a Democratic stronghold for most of the 21st century, and competition between the two parties has become a faint memory.
But GOP officials told Gothamist they’re feeling buoyed by President Donald Trump’s gains in the Empire State last year, and they’re eager for next year’s statewide elections. They see an opportunity in a vulnerable Gov. Kathy Hochul – who won a closer-than-expected election against Republican challenger Lee Zeldin in 2022, and already has members of her own party eyeing a primary.
“We are this close to turning things around,” said Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, “because everyday people – Republicans, common-sense Democrats, independents – they know that these, Democrat-progressive-liberal-woke policies are nuts.”
Blakeman, a brash lawyer who worked his way up through Nassau County’s Republican machine, recently drove 200 miles to address a room of people picking at filet medallions and wild mushroom risotto at a fundraising dinner in Binghamton – the largest city in Broome County. He’s running for another term as county executive, but didn’t rule out a statewide run.
And the crowd was eager to hear from him. Benji Federman, chair of the Broome County Republican Committee, said he considers Blakeman a national-level figure and he attracted hundreds of businesspeople, union officials and party apparatchiks.
“The tide has certainly shifted,” said Broome County Sheriff Fred Akshar, a Republican who previously served in the state Legislature and attended the dinner**.**
Blakeman and U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler have already begun traveling to political events, each laying the foundation for a statewide run while staking out different lanes within the GOP. Blakeman has emphasized his close relationship with Trump. Lawler spins a more moderate persona, bragging last year that he was one of the most bipartisan members of Congress. Both are hammering Democrats who control Albany over crime, immigration and the cost of living.
The Democratic governor’s job approval rating, meanwhile, remains underwater as she grapples with multiple crises. Hochul and Trump have feuded over congestion pricing in New York City, and his administration is suing the state over a law that allows undocumented immigrants to access driver’s licenses. Hochul’s lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, announced he won’t join her on the ticket next year.
For Republicans, it all adds up to opportunity.
“It's nuts what's going on in this state,” Blakeman said in Binghamton.
He touted a recent agreement to cross-deputize county police officers to help with federal immigration enforcement. He also recounted his order banning women’s sports teams with transgender members from using county facilities. It prompted support from Caitlyn Jenner, a former Olympic decathlete who is trans herself, as well a lawsuit from state Attorney General Letitia James. The case is pending.
But more than anything, Blakeman boasted of his ties to Trump. The county executive hosted Trump at a pre-election rally with an overflow crowd. They were on the phone two weeks ago. “I get text messages from him at 2 o'clock in the morning,” Blakeman said. “Of course, I'm asleep. He's up.”
Lawler has voted for key Trump priorities, but he has also publicly broken with the president on issues like supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. He’s pushing the president to repeal limits on the federal deductibility of state and local taxes.
Iona University political scientist Jeanne Zaino said Lawler is walking a fine line.
“ He doesn't hug too close to the far-right of the party, the MAGA wing,” she said. “Neither does he shy away from things that he thinks that the MAGA wing or the Trump aspect of the party is doing well.”
Hochul has frequently attacked Lawler’s record, including his recent vote for a budget proposal that cut Medicaid funding.
“These Republicans need to own that vote starting now,” Hochul said last month on “Morning Joe.” “This is all about basic health care, maternal health care. This is about getting your insulin treatments.”
Lawler, a former state assemblymember from the Hudson Valley, was elected to the House in 2022 and has been a vocal critic of Hochul since his time in Albany. He returned to the state capital twice this year, including for a Conservative Party conference in February, when he confirmed he was pondering a gubernatorial run.
He criticized changes to the state’s criminal justice laws that eliminated cash bail for most misdemeanor and nonviolent felony offenses, arguing they drove an increase in crime. He railed against New York’s high taxes and higher cost of living. And he promised to reduce regulations on businesses and audit the Metropolitan Transportation Authority.
“People cannot afford to live here, they don't feel safe here, and they are leaving in droves,” Lawler said. “So, if we are going to fix it, it requires a strong ticket, starting with the governor and working all the way down.”
Zaino said one of the tensions in the 2026 race would be whether voters are more focused on Republican-controlled Washington or Democratic-controlled Albany.
“Republicans are going to be able to use that to their advantage and are going to be able to ask New Yorkers, how secure do you feel?” Zaino said. “But they're going to have to be very careful about embracing Donald Trump.”
Vice President Kamala Harris beat Trump in New York by more than 12 percentage points. But the Republican did win more than 3.5 million votes in the Empire State, which is a 10% increase over his tally in 2020. That success didn’t trickle down-ballot, and Democrats – boosted by organizing work overseen by Hochul – won back several House seats.
One of the victors was Josh Riley, who grew up outside of Binghamton and outperformed Kamala Harris in Broome County. Several dozen protesters gathered outside the Binghamton dinner, chanting “Stop the Coup” and denouncing proposed cuts to Medicaid contained in a budget bill passed by the House of Representatives.
Zachary Meseck, a Republican who serves as a town supervisor in nearby Chenango County, said it would take a different message for the GOP to win statewide. Meseck said Trump’s early moves to change the definition of birthright citizenship and cancel spending that was appropriated by Congress were concerning.
“I want to see progress, I want to see change, but I also want to make sure that the Constitution is respected,” he said. “There is some concern that maybe what he's doing doesn't represent the whole of Republican values.”
A recent Siena College Research Institute poll found that just 34% of voters said they were prepared to re-elect Hochul, who bested Zeldin in 2022 by six points – a closer-than-expected margin. The poll didn’t test Hochul against a potential Republican challenger, but found she holds a commanding lead over either Delgado or U.S. Rep. Ritchie Torres in a hypothetical Democratic primary. The same poll found Lawler ahead of Blakeman in a hypothetical Republican primary.
A spokesperson for Hochul’s campaign said, “Republicans’ optimism is laughable.”
“After nearly two months in power, they have done nothing but send our economy into free fall while stripping away health care and critical programs that veterans, seniors, children with disabilities, and working New Yorkers rely on,” spokesperson Jen Goodman said. “While Republicans’ agenda puts New Yorkers in harm’s way, Gov. Hochul remains focused on keeping our communities safe, putting money back in families’ pockets, and delivering on behalf of New Yorkers.”
Analysts point to multiple structural advantages for Democrats. There are around 3 million more enrolled Democrats than Republicans in the state. Hochul reported $15.5 million in her campaign warchest as of January – far more than Blakeman and Lawler combined. And historically, the party out of power in the White House makes gains in midterm elections.
“I think heading into 2026 Republicans have optimism and hope, but Democrats have history and enrollment on their side. But they should not take anything for granted,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “New York is a state that has been solidly blue for a long time. The last time a Republican won statewide in New York was when George Pataki won his third term as governor in 2002.”
Pataki defeated Mario Cuomo in 1994 as part of a nationwide GOP wave. Pataki has subsequently clashed with Trump, and said at a recent event in Albany that it was too soon to assess how he would affect midterm elections. He said choosing the right ticket would be crucial for the GOP.
“You have to have a candidate who is able to appeal to over a million Democrats, to get them to say, I'll suspend my party loyalty and vote for someone because I believe the issues are so important and their solutions are right,” Pataki said. “Then, absolutely, a Republican can get elected.”
Tagged
Politics
Kathy Hochul
new york state
donald trump
Jimmy Vielkind
Jimmy Vielkind covers how state government and politics affect people throughout New York. He has covered Albany since 2008, most recently as a reporter for The Wall Street Journal. Jimmy led a team of reporters that won a New York Press Club award for coverage of Andrew Cuomo’s downfall and was on a team that won a Gerald Loeb Award for coverage of Amazon’s HQ2 process. A native of the Capitol Region, Jimmy has two degrees in urban planning. His position is funded by a grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Reach Jimmy at [email protected].
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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
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