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In NJ midterms, Republicans have a recruitment problem
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Mike Hayes
Published Dec 12, 2025
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By
Mike Hayes
Published Dec 12, 2025
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Democratic candidates in New Jersey are clamoring to run in what both parties see as competitive races in next year’s midterm elections. The same cannot be said for the GOP.
In a cycle when both parties have their eyes on the House majority, up to a dozen candidates are lining up to run on the Democratic side in key New Jersey congressional races, compared to just one or two from the GOP.
Political experts said the lack of candidate recruitment is a key indicator roughly a year out from the midterms that Republicans — who hold the White House, Senate and House — are anticipating a wave election, and not in their favor.
“ When you have a party that has lots of really good candidates jumping out of the gate and chomping at the bit, that's usually an indication that they think the party has good chances,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University's Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics. “When you don't see people coming out of the woodwork, that's an indication that the candidates believe that the party is not going to have as good a shot.”
It’s conventional wisdom to expect the president’s party will struggle in the midterms. In 2018, during Donald Trump’s first term, Republicans lost 40 House seats. In 2022, during Joe Biden’s term, Democrats defied convention and lost just nine House seats — and held onto the Senate.
To prevent a repeat of 2018, the Trump administration has been pushing a series of redistricting efforts around the country in hopes of strengthening Republicans’ chances of holding the majority next year.
The results of this past November’s off-year gubernatorial elections have emboldened Democrats. New Jersey Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill beat Trump-aligned Republican Jack Ciattarelli by double digits. And Sherrill won over unaffiliated voters by large margins, swaying a key bloc that New Jersey Republicans need to cover a wide gap in the number of voters registered with the party in the state.
The races for the 7th, 9th and 11th congressional districts, all located in North Jersey, stand out to political observers as competitive contests.
New Jersey’s 9th Congressional District
In the 9th District, which largely consists of parts of Bergen and Passaic counties, there's been plenty of speculation that first-term Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou is vulnerable. Trump surprisingly carried her district in 2024, thanks in large part to a sizable rightward shift among Latino voters.
Earlier this year, Pou found herself on a list of 26 Democratic congressional members that the National Republican Congressional Committee intends to spend money and resources on unseating.
So far, however, Pou has seen few GOP candidates lining up to run against her.
Just two Republicans have entered the race. Air Force veteran Billy Prempah, who lost to Pou in 2024, is trying again. As of October, his campaign has raised just $16,000, according to campaign finance records, compared to Pou, who is sitting on a $1 million war chest.
The other Republican is Rosie Pino, a Clifton city councilmember who recently left the Democratic Party — but not before her grassroots organization endorsed Pou in the last election.
Pino and Prempah did not respond to interview requests.
But Pou said she believes the GOP is still gunning for her in 2026.
“I’m their No. 1 — in New Jersey that is,” she told Gothamist.
National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Maureen O’Toole did not respond to questions about the party’s ability to field candidates for competitive seats in New Jersey.
“Across New Jersey, Democrats are running with failed records and out of touch priorities, and the party is consumed by messy internal fights and far-left ambitions,” O’Toole said.
New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District
The contest to replace incoming Gov. Mike Sherrill in next year’s special election for the 11th Congressional District — comprising parts of Essex, Morris and Passaic counties — started with 13 Democratic candidates. One has since dropped out.
Whoever emerges from the crowded Democratic primary in early February will face Randolph Mayor Joe Hathaway, the presumptive GOP nominee given he’s the only Republican running for the seat.
Hathaway did not respond to an interview request. O’Toole touted him as a Republican candidate focused on “what matters to New Jersey families,” such as lowering taxes and cutting household costs.
History shows the district to be anything but safe for Democrats. Prior to Sherrill’s win in 2018, the GOP held the seat for more than three decades. In the 2025 race for governor, Sherrill dominated in the counties with areas that make up her former congressional district, carrying Essex County by 54 points and Passaic County by 16. She was also able to flip Morris County for Democrats, winning there by 2 points.
New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District
And in the 7th District — comprising all of Hunterdon and Warren Counties, as well as parts of Morris, Somerset, Sussex and Union Counties — Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. is expected to face a close race. Trump won the district by just 2 points in 2024. Sherrill carried the district by a point in 2025. Kean could be vulnerable; at least nine Democratic candidates have come out to challenge him.
Dan Cassino, professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, said the GOP’s recruitment problem isn’t due to a lack of “high-quality candidates,” but rather a sign that those candidates don’t want to run “right now.”
”Qualified Republican candidates are going to bide their time and wait for an election in ‘28 or ‘30 when they think they've got a better chance,” he said. “Where Democrats recognize this is the best chance they're going to have.”
Kristopher Shields, director of the Eagleton Center on the American Governor at Rutgers University, said not having to align with Trump is one advantage of waiting another few years to run in New Jersey as a Republican.
“The party's not going to write off 2026, but there may be individual candidates who say, 'You know what, I'm comfortable with where I am for now. Let's see where this is all going,'” Shields said.
While there’s still time to file for the midterm elections, political experts agree that any serious candidate from both parties should have at least hinted at running by now.
“Generally, if there's somebody who's high profile who’s going to run for one of these seats, you've at least started to hear some rumors at this point,” Shields said.
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Mike Hayes
Mike Hayes covers equity and access to opportunity in New Jersey. He joined WNYC and Gothamist in 2023. Before that, he worked as a freelance journalist writing about policing and criminal justice. He has written for ProPublica, CNN, HuffPost, BuzzFeed News and The Appeal. He is also the author of the book, “The Secret Files: Bill De Blasio, The NYPD, and the Broken Promises of Police Reform.” In 2019, he was a finalist for the Livingston Award for Young Journalists.
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