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How NYC voters could determine outcome of race for governor

Jon Campbell

Published Oct 29, 2026 at 11:00 a.m. ET

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Hochul and Mamdani smiling with supporters in a park.

Brigid Bergin/Gothamist

Jon Campbell

Published Oct 29, 2026 at 11:00 a.m. ET

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This column originally appeared in The Politics Brief, our weekly newsletter on the people, power and policies that shape New Yorkers' lives.

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Gov. Kathy Hochul’s re-election depends on New York City voters turning out for her in big numbers — so it’s no surprise she’s spent much of the campaign’s final stretch pressing the flesh in the five boroughs.

Like her GOP challenger Bruce Blakeman, Hochul has spent the bulk of the campaign’s closing days in the city — shaking hands at an Upper West Side subway station, rallying with union leaders and attending church services in Brooklyn, and meeting with Jewish and Black community leaders in the Bronx. She’s leaned on New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani to campaign for her, all in hopes of catching the mayor’s draft as he taps into his significant popularity with younger Democratic voters.

“ I want everybody to vote for me,” Hochul said during an event with Mamdani at McCarren Park in Brooklyn last week. “I'm so excited about this. But the mayor brings an energy and excitement to our campaign, and I'm grateful for that.”

Four years ago, the Democratic governor got a startling lesson in the importance of turnout in New York City. She won the five boroughs by a 70%-30% margin over Republican Lee Zeldin. But she actually lost the rest of the state by 8 points, meaning the city was entirely to thank for her relatively narrow 6-point election victory.

Blakeman has been crisscrossing the city, too, in hopes of picking off as many voters as he can in high-density areas. He held rallies in Republican-friendly areas of Staten Island, Dyker Heights in Brooklyn and Flushing in Queens on Saturday before railing against congestion pricing in Midtown on Tuesday.

The Nassau County executive says his campaign advisers have told him he needs to get at least 32% of the vote in New York City to “be in the game” statewide. That’s only slightly better than Zeldin four years ago, but Blakeman predicted he would get more — north of 36% of the vote.

That’s a big “if,” considering a Siena University poll released Wednesday put him at 23% in the city, and Marist University had him at 26%. But even if Blakeman reaches his goal, he would still need lower turnout in the city and higher turnout on Long Island and in more Republican-friendly areas of the state to have a chance.

The same Siena poll showed Hochul with a 54% to 40% lead over Blakeman statewide, while Marist pegged the race at a slightly narrower 53% to 42%.

Blakeman says he isn’t concerned with what the public polls have shown.

“ I don't have to tell you guys about polls,” he told Gothamist earlier this month during a campaign stop in Queensbury, about an hour north of Albany. “You've been around politics a while. If she's spending $6 million the last two weeks attacking me, she's in deep trouble because you don't attack a Republican and raise his name ID this late in a campaign unless you're in real trouble.”

Hochul’s campaign can take comfort in early voting numbers.

More than 294,000 New York City voters cast ballots over the first four days of the nine-day early voting period, which began on Saturday. That’s an increase of nearly 123,000 voters — or 72% — from the same four days in 2022, the last time Hochul was on the ballot.

The rest of the state, however, has seen a 97% increase in early voting from 2022, an even greater bump. That could be a good sign for Blakeman, in theory, since Zeldin largely performed well outside the city in 2022.

But Democrats tend to turn out during early voting more than Republicans. That appears to be the case on Long Island, Blakeman’s home base, where Democratic voters have significantly outpaced Republicans so far — especially in Suffolk County, where the early vote has more than doubled, according to a Newsday analysis.

Of the 2026 early voters in New York City, 76% were Democrats and 11% were Republicans through the first four days, according to the city Board of Elections.

In the city, Hochul’s association with Mamdani seems to have helped her cause in some of the biggest Democratic neighborhoods — including Greenpoint, Brooklyn, where some voters said the mayor’s support carries a lot of weight.

At McGolrick Park, voter Patrick Shore told Gothamist that he trusts the mayor’s endorsements.

“If there's someone that he backs, then that's probably the person that I'm going to go for,” said Shore, 29, who works in cybersecurity.

Sadie Rosenfeld, a 28-year-old academic adviser at NYU, said she is not that familiar with the governor’s race. But she said she’s excited to go to the polls for Hochul since she’s Mamdani’s pick.

"If they're already working together and Zohran is... excited about her, then I trust his insight because I already trust him as a mayor,” she said.

Early voting runs through Nov. 1. Election Day is Nov. 3.

Carol Chen and Brigid Bergin contributed reporting.

We want to hear from you

Mayor Zohran Mamdani has endorsed Gov. Kathy Hochul. President Donald Trump has endorsed Bruce Blakeman. Will either of those endorsements influence your decision at the polls?

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Jon Campbell

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Jon Campbell covers the New York State Capitol for WNYC and Gothamist. Prior to that, he covered the Capitol for more than a decade for the USA TODAY Network. He has twice earned the Walter T. Brown Memorial Award, an honor given annually by the Legislative Correspondents Association alumni for outstanding state government coverage. Jon grew up in the Buffalo area and graduated from the University at Albany. Got a tip? Email Jon at [email protected] or Signal at JonCampbellNY.90.

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