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Heads up, NYC. Tropical Storm Nicole is on the way to ruin your weekend.
By
Nsikan Akpan
Published Nov 8, 2022
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NOAA
By
Nsikan Akpan
Published Nov 8, 2022
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Whether a blue or red wave happens on Election Day, New Yorkers and New Jerseyans will want to pack an umbrella by the time the weekend arrives.
Weather models show that Tropical Storm Nicole is on track to dump rainfall all along the East Coast this week. Nicole is currently gaining strength as it moves toward the Bahamas, and the National Weather Service expects the storm to hit southeastern and central Florida as a Category 1 hurricane late Wednesday and then weaken.
The NWS tracker predicts the storm will then head northeast, with tropical storm force winds due to hit South Jersey by 8 p.m. Friday.
Preliminary wind speed probabilities for Tropical Storm Nicole, as of the afternoon of Nov. 8, 2022.
National Hurricane Center
“The odds are very high that the storm will impact our area,” said public media meteorologist Garett Argianas. “There is potential if the storm track comes over the city or tracks west of the city that there could be some wind gusts of say 30 to 40 miles per hour. And there's even the outside chance of an isolated tornado.”
The storm track could change over time, but more than a dozen weather models show Nicole passing through the tristate area, according to the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee Atmospheric Science Program.
“On average, it should be a pretty good soaking of an inch-and-a-half to 3 inches, but there's certainly potential for some locally heavier amounts,” Argianas said of potential rainfall in the New York area.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an “above normal” Atlantic hurricane season in 2022, with 14 to 21 named storms. Nicole is the 14th named Atlantic cyclone this year — and one of the latest to ever occur in the calendar year.
Coastal watches/warnings and forecast cone for Tropical Storm Nicole, as of the afternoon of Nov. 8, 2022.
National Hurricane Center
Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University meteorologist who specializes in hurricane history, tweeted that Nicole is the third Atlantic named storm since Halloween — representing the most to ever form in the week after Oct. 31. And if it hits eastern Florida as a hurricane, that would also be a record, he stated.
Agrianas said by the time Nicole arrives in the New York area, it would no longer be a tropical cyclone — just its remnants. But if those leftovers are severe, they can still cause problems in the New York area, akin to what happened with the remnants of Hurricane Ida last year.
“These storms all vary, so there's no way to say for sure that the impacts from Nicole would be as significant as they were from Ida,” he said. “Just be aware. Stay on top of the forecast over the next couple of days and be alert of any flood warnings.”
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Nsikan Akpan
Nsikan is the former editor of the health and science desk at WNYC/Gothamist. Nsikan was previously at National Geographic where he worked as a science editor, overseeing its COVID-19 coverage in addition to other topics in science, health and technology. Before National Geographic, he worked for more than four years at PBS NewsHour, where he co-created an award-winning video series named ScienceScope. He shared a 2020 Emmy for the PBS NewsHour series “Stopping a Killer Pandemic” and in 2019 received a George Foster Peabody Award for the PBS NewsHour series “The Plastic Problem.” Nsikan has also worked for NPR, Science News Magazine, Science Magazine, KUSP Central Coast Public Radio, the Santa Cruz Sentinel and as a writer at the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University. He holds a doctorate in pathobiology from Columbia University and is an alum of the science communication program at the University of California, Santa Cruz.
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