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GOP candidates in NY face a changed landscape on immigration
By
Arya Sundaram
Published Oct 28, 2026 at 6:30 a.m. ET
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Spencer Platt/Getty Images
By
Arya Sundaram
Published Oct 28, 2026 at 6:30 a.m. ET
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Four years ago, as public opinion on immigration plunged and a surge of immigrants crossing the southern border moved to New York, Republican candidates for public office seized on the issue. It helped flip four House seats red and narrowed Democrat Gov. Kathy Hochul’s victory margin to just 6 points.
Ahead of this year’s general election, New York Republican candidates are reviving a similar playbook, hammering their opponents on so-called “sanctuary” policies, which limit local police cooperation with Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which they claim make the state less safe.
But they do so as public opinion on immigration has swung in the opposite direction. A top issue for voters two years ago, immigration has fallen in importance as an electoral concern, both nationally and in New York, vastly overshadowed by concerns about the economy and cost of living.
The change coincides with new immigration patterns: Migrant crossings at the border have fallen to their lowest levels in 50 years, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. U.S. Border Patrol agents now encounter a few thousand migrants a month, down from a peak of nearly 250,000 in December 2023 under former President Joe Biden, according to agency data.
“ In some regards, the Republicans are victims of their own success because they've been able to secure the borders and stop the open border policies of Biden and [Kamala] Harris,” said John McLaughlin, a conservative pollster supporting the GOP campaigns of Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman for governor and the re-election of Rep. Mike Lawler in a key Hudson Valley race.
Hundreds of thousands of migrants made their way to New York City during Biden’s term, some of them bused by Texas officials who sought to “bring the border” to Democrat-run cities farther north. By January 2024 — during the peak of the migrant crisis, as the influx was termed — as many as 4,000 immigrants a week were arriving in New York City and applying for shelter. The city’s shelter population more than doubled in size, to a peak of nearly 150,000.
Former Mayor Eric Adams warned in September 2023 that the migrant “issue” would “destroy New York City,” a comment that incited backlash from immigrant advocates in a city with strong immigrant roots. But in a survey the same year, 62% of local voters agreed with Adams’ view. In another poll, the vast majority of respondents supported the city’s right-to-shelter mandate supporting the new arrivals, but less than a third agreed that the city and state should continue to accept more migrants and asylum-seekers.
But voters have since soured on President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown.
A majority of voters in the state, and nationally, now view ICE unfavorably and say its tactics have gone too far, polling shows. Viral images of crowds of immigrants splayed on sidewalks or waiting in line for shelter outside the Roosevelt Hotel in Midtown have been replaced by viral videos of violent ICE encounters, including the recent shooting of an immigrant during an arrest in the Marble Hill section of New York City. In Lower Manhattan, videos have shown ICE agents arresting immigrants and separating them from their families at immigration court hearings.
“An issue that (Democrats) would run away from suddenly became worth embracing,” said Muzaffar Chishti, senior fellow at the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute at NYU School of Law. ”Suddenly it became OK to say ‘Abolish ICE.’ Because of the cruelty.”
For many observers, the Trump administration's enforcement surge in Minnesota, including the fatal shootings by ICE agents of U.S. citizens Alex Pretti and Renee Nicole Good in January, marked an inflection point. Chishti said historians will distinguish between the “pre-Minnesota” and “post-Minnesota” chapters of immigration history in the U.S.
Even still, Republican candidates in New York in recent weeks have doubled down on their immigration messaging, aiming to link undocumented immigrants to crime. That’s despite several studies that show immigrants, including those without legal authorization to stay in the country, are less likely to commit crimes than U.S.-born individuals.
“ When are we gonna start talking about the drug dealing of illegal migrants, the shoplifting, the carjacking?” Blakeman said at a recent press conference. “We've got to get the word out to people that this is very real. This danger is real… The revolving door of criminality must stop. It's hurting local businesses.”
And throughout the sole gubernatorial debate earlier this month, Blakeman criticized Hochul for being soft on immigration. The governor, in turn, criticized Blakeman for his strong support of ICE, whose tactics she said have gone too far.
“He’s going to let ICE run rampant in our streets,” Hochul said during the debate. “So this is your choice, New Yorkers. I’m not letting this happen.”
Hochul has backed new laws banning masks for ICE officers, among other law enforcement personnel, and outlawing formal immigration agreements between ICE and local law enforcement agencies.
She has resisted calling such policies “sanctuary” reforms, with her spokesperson Jen Goodman previously noting that the term carries different meanings for different people, and that she continues to crack down on immigrants with violent criminal histories.
Lawler, who faces Democrat Cait Conley, has touched on immigration in another way. His campaign put out an ad in which he receives the endorsement from the Westchester-based parents of Sheridan Gorman. She was an 18-year-old college student who was killed in Chicago in March. An undocumented immigrant has been charged in her death.
And both Blakeman and Lawler joined forces earlier this month in Chappaqua, to attack their opponents for their immigration policies. They stood in front of a podium emblazoned with a sign in all-caps: “How many more victims? End sanctuary policies.”
But a recent poll by Quinnipiac University shows Blakeman trailing Hochul by double-digits. The same poll shows immigration, at 13%, as the third-top issue for voters, behind the cost-of-living and the economy, a combined 41%.
Among voters who say immigration is the most important issue, Blakeman vastly outperformed Hochul, 71% to 28%. However, among those who say the cost of living or the economy is the most important issue, Hochul leads handily.
“ The reason for the focus on immigration and even on crime by some of these Republican candidates is that they realize what a bad situation they are in, and therefore they are into a base motivation strategy,” said Jeffrey Pollock, the president of the polling and political consultancy firm the Global Strategy Group, which is aiding the Hochul and Conley campaigns. “But again, it is not the top issue for anybody who's out there who's persuadable.”
Pollock added that voters in focus groups who viewed Lawler’s ad said that they were confused about how Gorman’s death was linked to Conley, a veteran and former counterterrorism and national security official.
Conley has campaigned on "reining in ICE," and revoking formal agreements between ICE and local law enforcement agencies. She's also called for "creating a pathway to citizenship" for undocumented immigrants already living in the country.
“ I just think the voters see through that (ad) as a cynical ploy of using a family's tragedy,” Pollock said.
But McLaughlin, the Republican pollster, said he thinks there’s been a rightward shift on immigration, driven by crime concerns.
“ When you see that (Gorman) family speaking out against this, you certainly have deep concerns about the sanctuary policies and the open border policies that are flawed and are being abused,” McLaughlin said.
John Mollenkopf, a CUNY professor who has for decades studied immigration politics in New York City, said immigration is one of the only talking points Republicans can emphasize at this point.
“ They can't talk about the economy. They can't talk about diesel prices. They can't talk about the war against Iran. They can't talk about Gaza,” Mollenkopf said. “Really to the extent that the Republicans tend to run on a law and order impulse, the specter of criminal immigrants is about all they've got at this point.”
Mollenkopf added that he predicts many non-white and immigrant communities that shifted towards Trump in 2024 — including Mexican Americans along the Texas border and Dominican and Chinese residents in New York — will likely shift back to support more Democratic candidates this year.
If Democrats prevail, they’ll have big decisions to make about how to handle immigration in the years ahead, said Chisthi, the Migration Policy Institute scholar.
The Senate last passed a bipartisan bill aimed at comprehensive immigration reform in 2013, but the House never voted on it.
“ If we go back to the status quo pre-Trump, we'll be handing another victory to the Republicans,” Chisthi said. “ We can't let a border crisis of the Biden era go to waste.”
Reporting contributed by Walter Wuthmann.
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Asylum Seekers
Politics
Race And Justice Unit
Arya Sundaram
Arya is a reporter covering race and justice. Got a tip? Email: [email protected] or reach Arya on Signal at 512-650-8767.
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