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Felony assaults rising in NYC even as other violent crime drops, report finds
By
Brittany Kriegstein
Published Aug 14, 2024
Modified Aug 14, 2024
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Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto via Getty Images
By
Brittany Kriegstein
Published Aug 14, 2024
Modified Aug 14, 2024
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As most violent crime rates continue to drop in New York City, a new report shows that serious assaults are on the rise — and researchers behind the findings aren’t exactly sure why.
The report, which was compiled from NYPD data by the nonprofit Vital City, shows a persistent increase in felony assaults citywide since 2020. Researchers and academics say there could be numerous factors behind the trend, and that understanding it is a crucial step toward addressing ongoing fears about public safety in the city.
“[Felony assault is] not just getting punched – the legal definition requires a substantial risk of death or disfigurement,” said Vital City's founder Elizabeth Glazer, who also served as director of the Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice under Bill de Blasio. “[The victim] is expected to experience a long-term health problem, lose an organ – these are very serious offenses and yet you see them way up.”
About 21,000 felony assaults were reported citywide in 2019, according to Vital City’s analysis. Last year, that number jumped to 28,000, even as shootings and murders declined from a spike during the early pandemic.
More than 17,400 felony assaults have been reported so far this year, according to the NYPD’s CompStat website. That’s an uptick from the roughly 16,600 this time last year.
Glazer said the increase could play a factor in fueling city residents’ anxieties about public safety, along with rises in other less physically violent crimes such as harassment, misdemeanor assault and criminal mischief.
“They're the kinds of incidents that can happen anywhere in any neighborhood, on the subway, in the street, in Midtown,” Glazer said. By contrast, shootings are down and happen in far more concentrated areas, as illustrated by Gothamist’s gun violence hot spot map.
A 2023 survey by the Citizens Budget Commission shows that a wide swath of city residents are more worried about safety in their communities than they were before the pandemic. Only 37% rated public safety in their neighborhood as excellent or good, down from 50% in 2017.
But Vital City’s report shows that crime rates per capita in New York City are still lower than many other major cities, including Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix and Philadelphia.
Jeffrey Butts, a professor and director of the Research and Evaluation Center at CUNY’s John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said any jump in crime stats is significant — but noted that it must also be evaluated within the context of the city's history, population size and its place among other similar cities.
“It's not hard to get triple digits of an increase in New York City, but on a per-capita basis, that might be a very minor blip compared to a smaller town that has a much higher per-capita rate of crime, but the numbers sound lower,” Butts said.
Issues with reporting crimes can also complicate the data.
“In some neighborhoods, you might have high degrees of assault that people just don't report,” Butts said, citing fears around communicating with police.
The NYPD did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the rise in reported felony assaults, or any steps the department is taking to address it.
Getting to the bottom of who perpetrates assaults — and how to address the problem — is difficult, the experts said.
“Most of the time it's a moment where they lose control, and those moments are caused by stresses in their lives,” Butts said. “So it could be housing issues, income, family trauma. Look at things like the relationship between the victim and the perpetrator. If it's stranger on stranger, is it inter-group? Is it inter-family? Is this in the context of drug use, alcohol use?”
Glazer said New York City's migrant influx was not likely a factor in the increase in serious assaults.
“The number of migrants [is] not sufficient to have driven the numbers up as much as they've gotten up,” Glazer said, noting that most of the city’s new migrants arrived after the upward trend in felony assaults had already started.
Glazer said more research needs to be done to bring crime in the city back to pre-pandemic levels.
“I think it is worth a deeper dive into where these incidents occur, what time they occur,” she said. “How different is that from past years?”
Tagged
new york city
nypd
public safety
Brittany Kriegstein
Brittany Kriegstein covers all breaking news around New York City, with a focus on crime and gun violence. Got a tip? Email Brittany at [email protected].
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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
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