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Fall in NYC could be warmer than usual, forecasters say
By
Ramsey Khalifeh
Published Sep 21, 2025
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Gary Hershorn/Getty Images
By
Ramsey Khalifeh
Published Sep 21, 2025
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Don’t be fooled. With the official start of autumn on Monday, forecasters say this fall could feel warmer than normal — despite what the culturally popular “Old Farmer’s Almanac” has said.
The almanac is known for making predictions based on secret formulas in the months leading up to a new season. This year, it predicted a cooler and drier October.
But the National Weather Service paints a different picture. The agency’s parent organization, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said the New York region has a 40 to 50% chance of a warmer-than-average fall. Still, meteorologists say seasonal forecasts are hard to get right.
NWS meteorologist Bryan Ramsey says long-term weather models are not so easy to pin down.
“ It's much more difficult to predict climate swings versus the day-to-day weather … It’s kind of like a cascading effect where you only have so many options for what we can for weather tomorrow,” he told Gothamist on Sunday. “And then you look three days from now, five days from now, seven days from now. And it gets harder and harder to predict what could happen because you’ll have more possibilities.”
Ramsey said the popular “Old Farmer’s Almanac” is not completely based on science and the weather service doesn’t rely on it as an accurate predictor of future climate.
As for the short-term forecast to kick off the new season, the National Weather Service said Monday and Tuesday will be cooler, with highs in the low 70s. Rain is expected to begin Tuesday evening and continue through the weekend, with a 40 to 50% chance of precipitation each day.
The autumn equinox marks the point when the Earth’s tilt shifts away from the sun in the Northern Hemisphere. Longer nights and shorter days begin with the fall as it transitions into winter.
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new york city
Ramsey Khalifeh
Ramsey Khalifeh is a transportation reporter on the NYC Accountability desk covering the largest transit system in the country. He was previously a general assignment reporter at Gothamist and worked on the Boston Globe's metro and copy desk. Got a tip? Email [email protected]
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