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Would a run for governor put NY Rep. Stefanik's rise among Republicans at risk?
By
Jimmy Vielkind
Published May 8, 2025
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By
Jimmy Vielkind
Published May 8, 2025
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This column originally appeared in The Politics Brief, our new weekly newsletter on the people, power and policies that shape New Yorkers' lives.
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Elise Stefanik has a national profile and is one of the top Republican leaders in the House of Representatives. She’s talked about as a future speaker of the House, building on years of recruiting and supporting candidates, as well as a tightly cultivated relationship with President Donald Trump.
Is she really going to blow that up to run a long-shot bid for governor of New York?
The 40-year-old congressmember is at a political fork in the road after Trump pulled her nomination to be ambassador to the United Nations, citing a too-close-for-comfort nose count in the GOP-controlled House. People familiar with Stefanik’s thinking say it’s increased her standing, soured her relationship with House Speaker Mike Johnson and prompted her to seriously consider challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2026.
“Look at the crises that Kathy Hochul and single-party rule have delivered to New York,” Stefanik said Sunday on Fox News.
Stefanik mentioned the state’s high taxes and criminal-justice policies. She’s planning to attend political events around the state in the coming weeks, including a gathering in Albany County this weekend and an appearance next month in Suffolk County.
“I think it's a low-risk, high-reward move for Representative Stefanik,” said Luke Perry, a political scientist at Utica University. Even if she lost, she would raise her profile and would be in line for an appointment in the Trump administration, he said.
Winning would be difficult. No Republican has been elected to statewide office in New York since George Pataki in 2002. There are about 3 million more enrolled Democrats than Republicans in the state. Democrats have all the advantages of incumbency.
And Stefanik would have to answer for Trump. She’s become a staunch backer of the president after first winning election in 2014 as a moderate. A Siena College Research Institute poll last month found voters disagree with Trump’s plans for tariffs and shuttering federal agencies. His favorability rating was 40%.
“Donald Trump has made sure that the Republican Party brand is so tainted in New York that no matter who runs against me, they will have the baggage of explaining why people's prices went up, why they lost health care,” Hochul said Monday on CNN.
But Hochul is hardly faring better in the polls. Her own favorability rating in that Siena poll was 44%.
Stefanik had $8.5 million in her congressional campaign account as of March, compared to the $15.5 million that Hochul reported in January. A poll showed Stefanik would easily win a GOP primary against other potential candidates, including Rep. Mike Lawler or Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. On Tuesday, Trump endorsed Lawler and Blakeman … for re-election to their current offices. He said nothing about Stefanik.
So she has the luxury of time. People familiar with Stefanik’s thinking say she can wait to see the results of the New York City mayor’s race and Trump’s first year in office before making a formal decision.
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Politics
Jimmy Vielkind
Jimmy Vielkind covers how state government and politics affect people throughout New York. He has covered Albany since 2008, most recently as a reporter for The Wall Street Journal. Jimmy led a team of reporters that won a New York Press Club award for coverage of Andrew Cuomo’s downfall and was on a team that won a Gerald Loeb Award for coverage of Amazon’s HQ2 process. A native of the Capitol Region, Jimmy has two degrees in urban planning. His position is funded by a grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Reach Jimmy at [email protected].
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