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5 things to watch on Election Day in New York City
By
Brigid Bergin
Published Nov 5, 2024
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By
Brigid Bergin
Published Nov 5, 2024
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It’s finally here. Polls opened across the city and state at 6 a.m. on Tuesday, and voters who didn’t take advantage of early or mail-in voting have until 9 p.m. to cast their ballots. While the eyes of the nation will be on the top of the ticket, here at Gothamist, we’re keeping track of key issues affecting New York City.
Here are the five things we’re watching on Election Day 2024.
1) Will voters have an “excelsior” experience at the polls?
During the early voting period, there were very few reports of widespread problems at the polls here in the city. Sure, there were lines. But there were more reports of people celebrating the democratic process, with cheers at poll sites for first-time voters and special Halloween and Battle of the Boro early voting stickers to inspire the election nerds among us.
Things are about to get a lot busier. The city will go from 155 early voting sites to more than a thousand Election Day poll sites. Voters who didn’t check their ballots ahead of time or haven’t gone to the polls in a while may find themselves assigned to new poll sites — and potentially new electoral districts – because of redistricting. A reminder that you can check your poll site and sample ballot here.
For any voter who does have a concern about their poll site experience, or any other issue that could prevent a lawful voter from casting a ballot, there will be nonpartisan election observers at many poll sites. Voters can also call 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683) to get assistance from trained election lawyers or 866-390-2992 to report an issue to the New York State Attorney General’s Office.
If there is something you think we should be reporting, email us at [email protected].
2) The first weekend of early voting turnout broke records. But then the momentum slowed down. What kind of turnout are we looking at in New York City?
Turnout peaks in presidential election years compared to any other election. In 2020, there was 62% voter turnout in New York City. In that election, 23% of active voters cast ballots during early voting, or 1,119,056 check-ins at the end of that early voting period.
The latest data from the New York City Board of Elections shows nearly the exact same 23% turnout rate among active voters, even though fewer voters — 1,089,328 — went to the polls. That’s because there are roughly 200,000 fewer registered voters on the rolls in New York City. What kind of turnout will there be overall? And will we see any changes in how voters opt to cast their ballots?
That’s a long way to say, we’re interested in more than how many people vote. We will also be watching how turnout breaks down by in-person and mail ballots, which must be postmarked by Election Day but will still count even if they are received up to a week later.
3) Does enthusiasm for the top of the ticket translate down the ballot in competitive congressional races?
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates seven congressional districts in New York with varying degrees of competitiveness. While Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump in recent statewide polling, the turnout for Trump may be higher in parts of the state where Republicans are running strong congressional campaigns.
The competitive races to watch run through Long Island, in the 1st (Rep. Nick LaLota-R v. John Avlon-D), 3rd (Rep. Tom Suozzi-D v. Mike LiPetri-R) and 4th (Rep. Anthony D’Esposito v. Laura Gillen-D) congressional districts. Out of the Long Island races, the 4th Congressional District in southern Nassau County is the most competitive. (Some analysts don’t think the 3rd Congressional District should even be on the list.)
The rest of the races are north of the city in the Hudson Valley’s 17th (Rep. Mike Lawler-R v. Mondaire Jones-D), 18th (Rep. Pat Ryan-D v. Alison Esposito-R) and the sprawling 19th (Rep. Marc Molinaro-R v. Josh Riley-D), which stretches from Ithaca to the Massachusetts border.
Finally, there’s the 22nd (Rep. Brandon Williams v. state Sen. John Mannion) near the Syracuse area.
If Democrats are able to flip four seats in New York, that would put them on the path to taking majority control of the U.S. House of Representatives and making Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn the House speaker.
4) Do voters remember to flip their ballot?
Across New York state, a measure that would add abortion and antidiscrimination protections to the state constitution will appear on the back of voters’ ballots. Supporters call it the Equal Rights Amendment, and have been urging people to vote yes for the better part of the year. A campaign against the measure got a jolt from more than $8 million in contributions from opponents of abortion and transgender rights, which was first reported by the New York Times.
In New York City, voters also have five other ballot questions related to proposed changes to the City Charter. They’re recommendations from a commission formed by Mayor Eric Adams, who has argued they will help city leadership govern effectively. Opponents, including most members of the City Council, have called the measures an attempted power grab.
All the ballot questions are on the backs of the ballots. It’s likely some voters will forget, neglect or opt out of voting for some or all of them.
5) When will results come in, and why will New York City’s be ahead of most of the state?
The New York City Board of Elections has been taking steps to improve its election night reporting. In the 2022 midterm elections, results in New York City were reported well ahead of other parts of the state, including nearby Nassau and Suffolk counties, where there are three competitive House races. New York City may be done with its election night reporting before those races are called.
Tagged
new york
Politics
Brigid Bergin
Brigid Bergin is an award-winning senior reporter on the People and Power desk. She is fiercely committed to telling stories that help people engage and support democracy. In 2022, she hosted a live, ten-week call-in politics show ahead of the midterm elections called The People's Guide to Power. Brigid's reporting in 2017 included some of the first coverage of a political newcomer now known as AOC. In 2016, she broke the news of a voter purge in Brooklyn just days before New York’s presidential primary, triggering city, state and federal investigations. Brigid also guest hosts The Brian Lehrer Show and All Of It. She graduated from the University at Albany and the CUNY Newmark School of Journalism. Got a tip? Email [email protected] or Signal 917-723-4719.
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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
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