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Democrats' early voting lead in NJ keeps growing ahead of Election Day

Mike Hayes

Published Oct 30, 2026 at 11:17 a.m. ET

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Democrat Rebecca Bennett

Aristide Economopoulos for Gothamist

Mike Hayes

Published Oct 30, 2026 at 11:17 a.m. ET

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Early voting turnout in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District has swamped 2024 totals ahead of next week’s midterm election, giving Democrats a key advantage in their attempt to take the seat back from Republicans. And unlike previous years, high Democratic turnout over Republicans has been sustained throughout the early voting period.

In the last general election, Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. was slightly behind Democratic challenger Sue Altman in the early vote by about 4,000 ballots heading into Election Day based on the number of votes cast by registered Democrats. He easily overcame that deficit and cruised to a 5-point victory.

This year, Kean and the Republicans find themselves in a far bigger hole after five days of early in-person voting in the state’s most competitive congressional race. Kean is facing off against first-time Democratic candidate Rebecca Bennett, a former Navy helicopter pilot and healthcare executive.

As of Thursday, nearly 54,000 Democrats have voted in the district compared to about 28,000 Republicans, according to early voting data from the state’s Division of Elections. The preliminary totals include vote-by-mail ballots. The high turnout has given Democrats a more than 25,000 vote advantage in the district so far.

“Rebecca is taking nothing for granted and will be out across the district earning every last vote," Bennett campaign spokesperson Carly Jones said. Kean’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Early totals do not reflect whom voters cast their ballots for, but are instead a tally of which party they are registered with, hinting at which candidate they may support.

The Democratic swell builds on New Jersey's 2025 gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Democrats outvoted Republicans in the district by about 10,000 votes after a handful of in-person early voting days. Gov. Sherrill went on to carry the district by about 2 points.

“The early voting [turnout] is something I've never seen before in my life,” said state Sen. Jon Bramnick, a Republican from Westfield. “ Republicans better duck for cover.”

Statewide, Democrats are outvoting Republicans early by more than 323,000 votes.

Bramnick said Kean’s anemic numbers reflect an “anti-Trump” sentiment that has swept through New Jersey. A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll this week found the president’s job approval rating now stands at just 29% in the Garden State. The poll also found that just 10% of voters support Trump’s MAGA movement.

“I like Tom, but this race is about the Republican brand,” Bramnick said. “Unfortunately, the Republican brand is Trump, Trump and Trump. And until we change the brand in places like New Jersey, we're going to continue to lose race after race after race in any type of competitive district.”

New Jersey Republican Rep. Tom Kean, Jr.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Other Republicans were more confident in Kean’s ability to eke out a win.

“Democrats have done a very good job of getting people out to vote early and vote by mail, and then on Election Day, not that good,” said state Sen. Joe Pennacchio, the deputy Republican leader.

But sustained Democratic turnout during early voting points to what may be a larger shift in New Jersey’s electorate.

Since early voting started in New Jersey during the COVID-19 pandemic, Republicans have typically closed the gap after Democrats gained an initial early lead, according to Dan Cassino, a politics professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University.

“ New Jersey has nine days of in-person early voting every year, starting last Saturday, going through next Sunday, and we expect that on the first couple of days, Democrats do better, and the rest of it, Republicans tend to do better,” Cassino said.

For example, on the Monday after the first weekend of early voting in 2025, Republicans outvoted Democrats by about 2%.

But that’s not happening this year. Democrats outvoted Republicans across the state by 16% on Monday Oct. 26, the third day of early voting this election cycle. And that trend continued through Wednesday, the most recent day early voting numbers were available.

“Early voting just isn't helping Republicans the way it has in the past,” Cassino said.

Republican state Sen. Declan O’Scanlon said he still believes in Kean’s chances, even if the two-time incumbent is the state’s most “vulnerable” Republican this midterm election.

“ I think Tom stands a shot at pulling it out,” he said.

Though O’Scanlon agreed with Bramnick that ”sentiment doesn't favor Republicans this cycle.”

“ It never does in midterms when a Republican president's in, just as it doesn't favor Democrats when a Democrat is in the presidency,” he said.

Van Drew in trouble?

Democrats’ advantage has some political watchdogs wondering if South Jersey Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew might be more vulnerable than previously expected in the state’s 2nd Congressional district.

He is currently facing off against Democrat Zack Mullock, the small-town Cape May mayor from the Jersey Shore.

Mullock has received an injection of support in the final days of the campaign. A super PAC tied to Democratic opposition research firm American Bridge 21st Century spent a reported $1.5 million in the week of the race on an ad attacking Van Drew.

New Jersey Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew

Heather Diehl/Getty Images

On Tuesday, Sherrill said on WNYC’s “Ask The Governor” that she plans to campaign for Mullock.

”He is a great candidate,” she said. “That's been a tough district. But the early numbers we're seeing in the early vote numbers are really looking good. I'm very excited about that race.”

With five days to go until the election, of the 80,000-plus early votes cast in Van Drew’s district, more than 40,000 Democrats have voted early compared to roughly 26,000 Republicans, including vote-by-mail ballots.

This would give Democrats more than a 17% advantage, slightly eclipsing the percentage that Van Drew won by in 2024.

“It certainly puts Zack Mullock in a much more competitive space than anybody would have thought from him a week ago, a month ago, six months ago,” said Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University's Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics.

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Mike Hayes

Mike Hayes covers equity and access to opportunity in New Jersey. He joined WNYC and Gothamist in 2023. Before that, he worked as a freelance journalist writing about policing and criminal justice. He has written for ProPublica, CNN, HuffPost, BuzzFeed News and The Appeal. He is also the author of the book, “The Secret Files: Bill De Blasio, The NYPD, and the Broken Promises of Police Reform.” In 2019, he was a finalist for the Livingston Award for Young Journalists.

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