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De Blasio Tells New Yorkers They Have “One Last Chance To Stop A Second Wave”
By
Elizabeth Kim
Published Nov 9, 2020
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Jen Chung / Gothamist
By
Elizabeth Kim
Published Nov 9, 2020
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As New York City's coronavirus infection rate continues to climb to levels not seen since earlier in the summer, Mayor Bill de Blasio on Monday implored New Yorkers to follow social distancing and mask wearing or otherwise face another round of shutdowns that could result in the citywide closure of schools and businesses.
"We have one last chance to stop a second wave," he said during his morning press conference, in which he used a tone of alarm not heard since the height of the outbreaks in April.
"We are in a dangerous situation and we have to change our habits," he said at one point.
He added that while outdoor mask usage has generally been good, health officials were observing that there were increasingly more people not wearing masks indoors.
Two critical virus indicators have looked worse with each passing day.
On Monday, the city's latest seven-day average test positivity stood at 2.21%. It marked the fifth day in a row that the average positivity was above 2%, a level that officials had long hoped to stay under.
New daily cases are also increasing, to between 600 to 800 a day now, after having fallen to as low as under 200 during the summer months.
In September, the mayor said that should the positivity rate hit 2%, the city would "reassess" indoor dining, which is currently permitted at 25% capacity. On Saturday, when asked about the future of indoor dining, de Blasio's office referred those questions to the state.
In a decision he may come to regret, de Blasio has also said that a 3% positivity rate would result in the closure of all public schools. The reopening of New York City's school system, the largest in the country, for in-person learning was one of the mayor's biggest achievements during the pandemic. Should the positivity keep rising at its current pace, the city could meet the criteria for a schools closure before the Thanksgiving holiday.
A shutdown would almost inevitably have another disastrous impact on the city's struggling economy. There are more than half a million fewer private sector jobs in the New York City region compared to last year. Although some companies have elected to bring back the majority of their workers once a vaccine is approved, others have already asked employees to return. Subway and bus ridership has climbed back to 1.8 million last week, up from 1.5 million in September.
Dr. Denis Nash, an epidemiology professor at CUNY, said that some of the city's thresholds struck him as arbitrary. Given that it is not clear whether schools are the source of any outbreaks, closing the school system would therefore not make sense. The same was true with indoor dining, he said.
"We could end up in this situation were we set up this a priori threshold, but when we look at what is happening epidemiologically we realize we don’t have the right metrics," he said.
Another epidemiologist, Dr. Jessica Justman of Columbia University, said it was important to examine the seven-day average positivity rate without the micro-cluster data, an analysis the city does not currently provide. At this stage, she said she was in favor of expanding contact tracing in the most affected areas rather than imposing new restrictions.
As a sign of mounting urgency, the city's Department of Health on Monday released new data on its coronavirus website that provides more details, including a breakdown on new cases by age, as well as what will become a daily ZIP code breakdown of positivity rates and cases. The city had previously been releasing ZIP code data on a weekly basis, but several elected officials and public school advocates had pressured the mayor to allow health officials to give more frequent updates.
But in spite of the robust virus data, city officials have been unable to explain the precise sources of the recent surges in new hotspots like Staten Island, which the mayor announced last week, or the general rise in positivity citywide.
The New York Times has reported an unnamed city health official who said clusters had been traced back to workplaces that included construction sites and offices.
On Monday, de Blasio said that the problem was not due to "specific sites." He attributed the rise in infections to more household transmission as well as community spread.
The decision of whether to impose new restrictions will rest on Governor Andrew Cuomo, who on Monday lifted all "red zone" restrictions in Brooklyn after easing them on Friday.
The change means that schools and most businesses will now be able to reopen in portions of South Brooklyn that included Borough Park and Gravesend. However, in some areas, high-risk businesses like gyms and hair and nail salons will still be prohibited from operating.
Prior to the governor's announcement, de Blasio said that 22 schools in Brooklyn will stay closed while roughly 20 others in the "yellow" or precautionary zone will open on Thursday.
The state has elected to use what Cuomo has frequently referred to as a "whack a mole" strategy—immediately expanding testing and in some cases, adding new restrictions, in a targeted geographic area once a cluster surfaces.
“The microcluster approach works,” Cuomo said in a call with reporters on Monday. "Watch a small increase, attack a small increase."
Cuomo cited Broome, Orange and Rockland counties as places where positivity rates have dramatically fallen after increased testing and restrictions.
Cases in Brooklyn and Queens have also steadily declined over the last month.
He said that while Staten Island numbers are "of concern," they were not high enough for the state to take any actions yet.
The governor emphasized that New Yorkers can expect these waves of small shutdowns until a vaccine arrives. "This is going to be all fall and all winter," he said.
For months, Cuomo has pointed the state's low daily test positivity rate as a testament of how successful New Yorkers have been in containing the coronavirus.
But on Monday, as the statewide positivity rate ticked up to 2.8%, the highest it has been since late May, the governor blamed the latest surge on coronavirus fatigue.
"We are tired of COVID, but COVID isn't tired of us," he said.
Sydney Pereira contributing reporting.
Tagged
COVID-19
Governor Andrew Cuomo
second wave
coronavirus
mayor bill de blasio
Elizabeth Kim
Elizabeth Kim is a reporter on the People and Power desk who covers mayoral power. She previously covered the pandemic, housing, redevelopment and public spaces. A native of Queens, she speaks fluent Mandarin. Got a tip? Email [email protected]
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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
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