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Can $4 Million In Early TV Ads Lift A Struggling Mayoral Campaign In 2021?
By
Elizabeth Kim
and
David Cruz
Published Apr 13, 2021
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By
Elizabeth Kim
and
David Cruz
Published Apr 13, 2021
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Donald Trump spent a fraction on televised ads compared to Hillary Clinton during his 2016 presidential campaign. Two years later, Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez didn't bother with the expenditure when she shockingly defeated incumbent Joseph Crowley on a shoestring budget. But political experts and campaign consultants continue to gnaw over the vexing question: in the age of social media, when a cheaply-made video can deliver a viral moment, how important are TV ads in political races?
In New York City, two Democratic candidates for mayor that have been struggling to stand out in a crowded field, Ray McGuire, an ex-Citigroup executive, and Shaun Donovan, a former housing secretary under President Barack Obama, have bet on the power of traditional television advertising. The two were the first to invest in the medium in February. Donovan, who aired his ad first, is currently poised to have the most TV ads through the end of this month—$3.7 million worth, according to data from AdImpact, a company that monitors ad purchases.
Of that spending, $3.1 million is from New Start NYC, a super PAC seeded by Donovan's father, Michael. The marketing executive has so far poured $2 million into it, according to state campaign finance records.
The campaign for McGuire and a super PAC called New York for Ray have together spent $2.3 million on TV advertising.
"Is TV going to make the difference? It's part of the discussion but it’s not the decider," said Hank Sheinkopf, a veteran political consultant.
Stills from McGuire and Donovan ads that were released earlier this year.
More and more, experts are looking at social media as the decisive medium. All eight leading candidates have been active on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram. Suggesting that they are leaving nothing to chance, most of them have also logged onto Clubhouse, the voice-only social media app that began as a sensation in tech and celebrity circles but which has much more limited reach.
There is precedent for using social media in the city's mayoral race: In the 2013 primary, Mayor Bill de Blasio was credited for having a shrewd and pioneering social media campaign strategy, experimenting with popular platforms like Reddit. De Blasio's first TV ad, which successfully featured his son Dante, did not run until one month before the primary, when his campaign was already surging.
Ocasio-Cortez's upset win in 2018 further cemented the force of social media, on which her campaign heavily relied. For the following election cycle, she invested millions on Facebook ads, vastly outspending rivals.
In the current mayoral race, only McGuire has spent money on online ads, which have appeared on sites like the New York Times. (Up until last month, Facebook had banned political advertising in the wake of misinformation concerns around the 2020 presidential election.) He has spent about 10% of his privately acquired campaign contributions—or half a million dollars—on online ads so far through a firm called Assemble, according to campaign finance board filings. Unlike most of the candidates, McGuire has not opted into the city's public financing program.
Scott Stringer is also adopting a digital strategy, having hired various “digital firms” designed to help craft a message. Those firms include Fireside Campaign, whose service offers “combined experience in the communications and digital spaces.” But even after spending just over $100,000 on digital firms, Stringer has yet to indicate whether he’s hired those firms to produce digital advertising.
Andrew Yang, the former presidential candidate, has also taken advantage of digital media, having spent $112,000 on Van Ness Creative LLC, a Long Island-based film and video production firm. Yang launched his campaign with a video that he posted on YouTube and Twitter.
David Birdsell, dean of the Baruch College School of Public Affairs, argued that expanding the digital landscape makes Donovan's television gamble questionable.
No 30-second commercial by itself is going to have much resonance, Birdsell argued, adding, "You have got to have a larger context to understand those pieces."
That larger context is increasingly being delivered through social media, he said.
McGuire and Donovan, who were not widely known public figures prior to the race for mayor and have less name recognition compared to candidates like Yang, are near the bottom of the pack when it comes to social media reach. McGuire has around 6,700 Twitter followers, while Donovan has roughly 6,000. Meanwhile, Yang boasts 2 million followers. Maya Wiley, a former civil rights attorney and MSNBC host, has 420,000 followers.
Donovan said in a statement, "Our campaign has been working overtime to connect with voters safely in every single borough and meeting them where they are—be it out on the campaign trail, on zoom forums, or on their TV and mobile screens. That's one of the reasons why my campaign was the first in the race to be up on TV in order to share my deep experience in crisis and show voters just some of my bold and comprehensive plans to rebuild NYC and reimagine it as a city that works for all New Yorkers."
Not everyone, however, is ready to write off the power of television.
Neal Kwatra, a Democratic political consultant who worked on de Blasio's first campaign, argued that despite social media's growing reach, television is still important in 2021. "Given how curated and fractured our media ecosystems are, TV still retains an enormous value especially when it comes to informing a lot of voter opinion and sentiment," he said, adding that older Democratic voters tend to be reliable viewers of cable news programs like CNN and MSNBC.
Kwatra said that second-tier candidates like McGuire and Donovan who are having a difficult time winning free press, also known as the "earned media" battle, need to find different ways of generating attention.
Television, he added, is "as good a tactic as any that they have to deploy."
Moreover, the science of targeting specific demographics on television has become increasingly fine-tuned, especially with the advent of connected or digital TV that includes streaming platforms like Hulu.
"It’s very granular now and you can be very efficient with that money," Kwatra said.
Read more: What The Donovan And McGuire Campaign Ads Say About The State Of The NYC Mayor's Race
Many experts did not find Donovan's first TV commercial, which leaned heavily on his association with President Obama, particularly compelling.
"How much do people associate Barack Obama with New York City? Is that linkage doing the work that Donovan needs it to do?" Birdsell asked.
Kwatra criticized the ad for lacking emotional storytelling. "What we aren't seeing from the ad is who Shaun Donovan is," Kwatra said. "What has motivated him to have a life of public service?"
But according to one recent poll, McGuire and Donovan both raised their name recognition by double-digits between January and March, the same period in which their TV ads ran.
With 10 weeks to go until the primary, the question is whether that bump will prove to be enough. In terms of who voters picked as their first choice, the poll still found McGuire and Donovan trailing the top tier candidates, led by Yang, and followed by Eric Adams, Wiley, and Stringer. McGuire came out two percentage points ahead of Donovan.
And all of those mentioned rivals are expected to come out with their own television spots soon. Yang, who is also dominating news headlines, has already been spotted filming more ads across the city.
Donovan's second ad once again underscores his White House experience, but it also pitches him as a candidate with policy heft by spelling out a few of his very many proposals.
Sheinkopf assessed the design of the graphics-laden ad as "modern" and "of the moment."
"But I wonder if anybody knows what an equity bond means?" he asked, referring to Donovan's plan to provide city children with savings accounts.
"It's a good intellectual argument. But he needs to stir the electorate very quickly," he said. "Is it going to move the numbers?"
Tagged
election 2021
mayoral campaign
Elizabeth Kim
Elizabeth Kim is a reporter on the People and Power desk who covers mayoral power. She previously covered the pandemic, housing, redevelopment and public spaces. A native of Queens, she speaks fluent Mandarin. Got a tip? Email [email protected]
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David Cruz
David is a former WNYC and Gothamist editor.
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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
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