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A Homophobe Has The Strongest Chance At Winning Bronx's 15th Congressional District Seat. But Others May Come Out On Top

David Cruz

Published Jun 5, 2020

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David Cruz

Published Jun 5, 2020

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Four candidates--starting from the top right--for the 15th Congressional District seat include Councilman Ruben Diaz Sr., Samelys Lopez, Assemblymember Michael Blake, and Councilmember Ritchie Torres.

Flickr, Samelys Lopez campaign, Michael Blake campaign, Flickr

In less than three weeks, voters in the Bronx will decide who will succeed Congressman José Serrano, who will retire after 30 years representing the South Bronx’s 15th Congressional District. Twelve candidates have spent nearly a year or longer jockeying for frontrunner status in a race whose outcome has the potential to reshape the district.

The only congressional district that doesn't extend beyond the Bronx, the 15th Congressional District has long been ranked the country's poorest — a third of the population lives below the federal poverty level in the district, with poor health outcomes and subpar housing — though pockets of gentrification have opened up, notably in the waterfront areas.

With the COVID-19 pandemic leading Governor Andrew Cuomo to issue an executive order calling for a mail-in absentee balloting option on top of in-person voting, a clear winner on primary night is unlikely.

Eleven candidates have picked the progressive lane since announcing their run. Councilmember Ritchie Torres promises to add greater funding to the cash-strapped New York City public housing system. Assemblymember Michael Blake looks to decrease the cost of college while Samelys Lopez intends to pass legislation that provides reparations for redlined communities by grassroots activists.

Then there’s the lane occupied by Councilmember Ruben Diaz Sr., the socially conservative Democrat whose been known to the district as far back as the 1990s, who's had several buildings named after him there. The crowded field of progressive candidates gives Diaz an advantage, as the liberal candidates could wind up splitting the vote in a district with notoriously low voter turnout. In many parts of NYC, a candidate like Diaz would not be seen as a frontrunner. But here he is, notwithstanding a slew of bigoted, homophobic remarks he's made over the years. Political observers have often noted that while the rest of New York City — and members of the City Council — may abhor his comments, they're just not a political vulnerability in the district.

Though Diaz is viewed as the likely primary winner, the pandemic has upended all campaign strategies and raised doubts about election day turnout, making a get-out-the-vote strategy all the more important.

The father of the Bronx Borough President with the same name, Diaz boasts a man-of-the-people image that has consistently kept him in office, showering constituents with free giveaways, a robust constituent services unit at his office, and his quarterly “Abrazo” events where residents are treated to a lavish party for free. Diaz’s voting bloc also includes the number of small-scale Pentecostal churches dotted around the district, and they've contributed significantly to his campaign.

“He has a strong following,” said George Artz, a longtime political consultant in New York City. “I would say Michael Blake has a lot of union support, and Ritchie Torres has a lot of support and a lot of money. So, I would make those three the favorites.”

Even an independent poll released on June 3rd by Data for Progress, the only poll for the race, shows Diaz as the likely winner of the race, showing 22 percent of those polled would vote for Diaz, compared to Torres with 20 percent, and Blake with a mere six percent.

But during the coronavirus crisis, name recognition and a base of support may not be reliable keys to victory. Voting sites will still be open during the June 23rd primary, though the fear of infection could keep voters from casting their ballots in person, making a Diaz victory more conditional.

“Yes, [Diaz] has a core support that will turn out and vote for him, but I don’t know how they’ll turn out in the primary," says Michael Benjamin, a New York Post editorial board member and former Bronx Assemblymember. "And the primary, now, that may not involve a lot of folks going out to the polls personally, it’s going to be a complicated process."

Diaz has been using the power of his City Council office to dole out masks and other free items in his district, which overlaps with the 15th Congressional District.

“People like what I call 'tactile politics'; people like to touch the candidate. They want to hear from there. They want to be there. They want to talk to everybody. They want to know their personalities,” said Artz. “It’s important to be out there, but it’s dangerous.”

Lopez, a democratic socialist and grassroots candidate, has been spotted around the district, meeting with supporters and residents. She most recently joined a volunteer cleanup crew in the neighborhood of Fordham, following nighttime looting that occurred during demonstrations against police brutality and the death of George Floyd. Blake, for his part, has also held mask giveaway events in his 79th Assembly District, which also overlaps with Serrano’s district. She garnered a coveted endorsement from fellow democratic socialist and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, raising her profile and enhancing her volunteer apparatus.

Benjamin noted that Blake, who doubles as vice chair for the Democratic National Committee, has the greatest institutional support given the heavy union endorsements, including from 1199 SEIU and 32BJ, which could help him with amassing volunteers for phone banking.

But Blake is not well-regarded in sections of the district where residents routinely come out and vote, particularly in Concourse Village, according to Bob Kappstatter, a former New York Daily News editor for the Bronx bureau who later transitioned to political consultant work.

"Concourse Village will tell the tale. That's where the deciding votes will come out in that district," said Kappstatter, who's hedging his bets between Diaz and Torres as the winner. "I've heard that Blake is not that popular in Concourse Village, which will be a key voting base in the contest. It always has been for that district. Ritchie's got a lot of money. He's got some decent unions for phone banking. And the Rev (Diaz) has got a lot of churches, got some decent history in Concourse Village."

Kappstatter has also noticed that Diaz has also cleverly dropped the suffix "Sr." on the ballot, theorizing it's an attempt to trick voters into thinking they're casting a ballot for Diaz's son, who's immensely popular borough-wide.

Money, of course, is vitally important. Diaz doesn't have it anywhere near Torres, who's surpassed all the candidates in that arena, raising $1.2 million, spending a third of it largely on political consultants. A review of Torres' campaign finance records show those in the real estate sector and Silicon Valley remain his top contributors. He was criticized early in the race for accepting donations from Daniel Loeb, a controversial billionaire who once said that teachers unions are more problematic than the Ku Klux Klan. Torres defended the donations. Diaz's monies, meantime, have largely come from the Bronx.

Former New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito is also among the other candidates vying to be the first female representative for the district. So is Chivona Newsome, a financial advisor and co-founder of New York’s Black Lives Matter Chapter who has positioned herself as a born-and-bred Bronx resident living the same struggles as the residents she seeks to represent. Capping the list is Marlene Tapper, a financial advisor who, unlike Newsome or Lopez, does not live in the district, but in Queens.

Living within a district is not a requirement for candidates seeking to hold a congressional seat, but it has become a talking point for those who do. The number of candidates living in the district versus those who don’t is evenly split, with Newsome, Blake, Diaz, Lopez, and community activists Frangell Basora, Julio Pabon, and Mark Escoffery-Bey living in the district while Torres, Ramos, Tapper, Mark-Viverito, and Councilmember Ydanis Rodriguez residing outside it.

With 12 candidates to choose from, the Bronx Democratic Party—whose outgoing chair, Assemblymember Marcos Crespo, has had alongstanding relationship with the Diazes—appears to have recused itself in endorsing anyone in the race’s final stretch. Crespo did not return a call seeking comment.

“I would assume there’s no consensus for any given candidate,” said Benjamin over the lack of an endorsement, adding the field of candidates have likely split any level of agreement within party members.

With no support from the party that would have provided a volunteer apparatus, the get-out-the-vote strategy will be more important than ever. Candidates have been reminding voters of their options, including early voting and a mail-in balloting system that will likely delay the outcome of the race. And even when that outcome is reached, election lawyers will no doubt be standing by to challenge mail-in or absentee ballots, as they did at the end of last year's Queens District Attorney’s primary, in which Melinda Katz eked out a victory after absentee ballots were successfully tossed in Katz’s favor.

“Every candidate is going to believe that their winning votes are on the pile of absentee ballots," Benjamin said. "It could be in the hundreds of thousands of ballots descending on the Board of Elections. Nobody thought about — the pain it’s going to be. It’s going to be the worst election ever."

Tagged

Politics

bronx

election 2020

David Cruz

David is a former WNYC and Gothamist editor.

Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations

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