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Donald Trump made gains throughout NYC as Dem margins plummeted
By
Jon Campbell
and
Arya Sundaram
Published Nov 8, 2024
Modified Nov 8, 2024
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Photo by Sacha Lecca/Rolling Stone via Getty Images
By
Jon Campbell
and
Arya Sundaram
Published Nov 8, 2024
Modified Nov 8, 2024
Share
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In a presidential election where wide swaths of the country moved to the right, New York City was home to one of the biggest rightward swings of all.
Make no mistake: Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris soundly defeated Republican President-elect Donald Trump in the city, with Harris receiving more than double Trump's vote total.
But Trump — who easily won the national race — made significant gains within the heavily Democratic city’s bluest boroughs, narrowing his margin of defeat by more than 20 percentage points in the Bronx and Queens compared to four years ago.
Across the city, Harris defeated Trump 68%-30% — a margin that was 16 points less than President Joe Biden’s victory over Trump four years ago. The shift has Democratic leaders sounding the alarm in a city that has six times as many registered Democrats as Republicans.
“Democrats are going to have to find a way to get the narrative back on a lot of these hot-button issues,” said Basil Smikle, a Columbia University professor who was once the state Democratic Party's executive director. “And they're going to have to figure out a way to create a new coalition that is more durable than the one they've been relying on for almost 30 years.”
The entire NYC metro area shifted to the right
Every single county within the New York City metropolitan area moved toward Trump when compared to four years ago, according to the most recent vote counts.
Some of the numbers are staggering.
Every county in New York City shifted right compared to four years ago.
Center for Urban Research, the Graduate Center, CUNY
Across the city, Trump gained about 94,000 more votes than he had in 2020 — while Harris garnered around 573,000 fewer than Biden did four years ago.
In the Bronx, where 71% of registered voters are Democrats, Trump received 91,542 votes with 98% of scanners reporting. That's 23,802 more votes than he received four years ago — or a 35% jump.
Manhattan's rightward shift was the smallest among the five boroughs — and even then, Trump closed his margin of defeat by 10 points from 2020.
The suburban shift was stark, too. Trump won Nassau and Rockland counties after losing them four years ago.
Rightward shift in Asian, Latino neighborhoods
The rightward shift over the last four years was particularly pronounced in majority-Asian and Latino districts across south Brooklyn and Queens.
Trump made significant pickups in Sunset Park in Brooklyn and Flushing in Queens, neighborhoods that are home to some of the city's many Chinatowns and some of its largest concentrations of Chinese residents. The latest results follow a rightward shift in predominantly Asian districts during last year's gubernatorial election.
And there were significant down-ballot effects. Republican Steve Chan was able to unseat Democratic state Sen. Iwen Chu in a heavily Asian district in Brooklyn that includes parts of Bensonhurst, Bath Beach and Sunset Park — areas where Trump improved or won outright.
In remarks to Gothamist, Chan attributed the trend to everyday issues, like cost of living.
“Everybody’s fed up,” Chan said. “Everybody’s sick of making their trips to the grocery store, and it’s become burdensome on their wallets. They’re worried about their safety. They’re not happy with that.”
Republican state Assemblymembers Alec Brook-Krasny and Michael Novakhov, who both faced stiff challenges from Democrats, were able to hold on to their seats in parts of Brooklyn where Trump performed well.
Trump also gained ground in neighborhoods with large Indian populations, such as Richmond Hill and Floral Park, and, to a lesser extent, in northeastern Queens communities that are home to sizable Korean populations. Trump made some of his most pronounced gains in the majority Latino communities of Jackson Heights, East Elmhurst and Corona. Those neighborhoods are home to large Colombian, Ecuadorian, Mexican and Peruvian populations.
“It's definitely a shift,” said John Mollenkopf, a demographer and director of the CUNY Graduate Center’s Center for Urban Research. “Whether and how it cements into something more solid and durable and sharp remains to be seen.”
Meanwhile, in majority white liberal strongholds like Park Slope and the Upper West Side, and in majority Black neighborhoods in central Brooklyn and Harlem, Harris fared the same as or better than Biden’s 2020 run.
Knickerbocker Village: The lone Trump district in Manhattan
Manhattan is home to more than 800 election districts, each of which account for a handful of blocks. And all but one of them went for Harris.
The lone exception is on the Lower East Side. That’s where, in a district at Monroe and Catherine streets, Trump eked out his lone Manhattan win — 251 votes to 235 votes, according to unofficial results from the city Board of Elections.
The district is home to part of Knickerbocker Village, an affordable housing complex between the Manhattan and Brooklyn bridges. It once had a large Italian population, but is now predominantly Chinese.
The district was redrawn since the last presidential election, so it’s tough to compare — though the Center for Urban Research estimates Biden won it by a large margin. Two years ago, the same district narrowly went for Republican Lee Zeldin over Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul in the New York governor’s race.
Impact on the 2025 mayor’s race
The Republican gains in the latest presidential election could have a significant impact on the 2025 mayor’s race — where a slew of Democratic candidates are lining up to run against incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat.
In his election three years ago, Adams received a significant share of votes from heavily Latino and Asian areas that have since shifted rightward, said Mollenkopf. That’s as he campaigned on a moderate law-and-order platform that highlighted his policing background.
“I think at some level, his people might be saying, these are gettable votes for us,” Mollenkopf said.
Correction: A previous version of this story misstated the size of Donald Trump's electoral gains in Brooklyn.
Tagged
new york city
Politics
Jon Campbell
Jon Campbell covers the New York State Capitol for WNYC and Gothamist. Prior to that, he covered the Capitol for more than a decade for the USA TODAY Network. He has twice earned the Walter T. Brown Memorial Award, an honor given annually by the Legislative Correspondents Association alumni for outstanding state government coverage. Jon grew up in the Buffalo area and graduated from the University at Albany. Got a tip? Email Jon at [email protected] or Signal at JonCampbellNY.90.
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Arya Sundaram
Arya is a reporter covering race and justice. Got a tip? Email: [email protected] or reach Arya on Signal at 512-650-8767.
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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
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