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67 ZIP Codes In NYC Now Have An Average Positivity Rate Over 2%
By
Elizabeth Kim
and
Jacob Dobkin
Published Oct 30, 2020
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Bebeto Matthews/AP/Shutterstock
By
Elizabeth Kim
and
Jacob Dobkin
Published Oct 30, 2020
Share
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Coronavirus cases are now spreading more broadly across New York City. Following outbreaks in parts of Brooklyn and Queens, infection rates are slowly rising in both neighboring areas as well as those further from hotspots, such as Morris Heights in the Bronx and West Harlem in Manhattan.
The data, along with remarks this week by city officials, suggest that the city faces a difficult battle in fending off a second wave that no longer appears contained to only a handful of neighborhoods.
"I would call it a slow burn," said Mark Levine, a Manhattan City Councilmember who chairs the health committee.
There are currently 67 ZIP codes out of 177 citywide that have an average test positivity rate over 2%, according to data posted Thursday on the Department of Health's website. Sixteen of those ZIP codes are above 3%.
The latest numbers cover a four-week period ending on October 24th.
As a comparison, one month prior to that period, the city's data showed only 20 ZIP codes with average positivities higher than 2% and 8 above 3%.
According to the latest available city data, the city’s seven-day rolling average positivity rate has now climbed to 1.87%, the highest it has been in several weeks.
During his press briefing on Thursday, Mayor Bill de Blasio expressed concern about the overall rise in infections.
"We’re really going to have to double down” de Blasio said. “This is a dangerous time, and we have to take it really, really seriously.”
The worrisome trend ironically comes as hotspot areas in South Brooklyn and central Queens have showed decreasing transmission of the virus, which city health officials have attributed to increased outreach efforts and the new restrictions imposed by the state four weeks ago. Following those new rules, which included the shutdown of non-essential businesses and schools in places with the highest infection rates, Gravesend (11223), Midwood (11230), Borough Park (11219), and Flatlands (11210) have seen their average weekly number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 residents steadily decline.
Gravesend, for example, has seen its weekly case rate drop by nearly 60% in two weeks.
However, average positivity rates in those neighborhoods are still high. They are among six New York City ZIP codes that have positivities above 5%. All except one, the Queens' neighborhood of Ozone Park, are in Brooklyn.
Among the neighborhoods with high case rates and growth since last week are Bath Beach in Brooklyn, and Elmhurst and Maspeth in Queens, according to a Gothamist analysis.
Health officials have been unable to explain the source of the new uptick in infections outside the Brooklyn and Queens hotspots, where Governor Andrew Cuomo pointed to gatherings by Orthodox Jewish residents.
But several experts had predicted that any virus outbreak in the city would lead to broader community spread given the commuting habits of New Yorkers.
"I think what we are seeing is that a tailored block or neighborhood strategy is not going to contain it," said Dr. Denis Nash, an epidemiology professor at CUNY.
Levine noted that the latest surge was timed with the changing weather. After holding everything from birthday parties and weddings to yoga classes outdoors, New Yorkers were now moving their activities indoors as the temperatures have dropped, he said. "For months, we've had such a warm fall."
The Department of Health provides weekly updates on its COVID data website of new cases as well as the rolling four-week positivity rates for each ZIP code. But Levine and others have called on Mayor de Blasio to release daily updates of cases and positivities broken down by ZIP codes, as the Health Department had been doing last month to draw attention to hotspots.
Earlier this month, de Blasio said the city would assess whether to make more details available.
Levine argued that the data was necessary to alert city residents about rising transmission rates in their neighborhoods. Most people, he said, saw the city's rising caseloads as a reflection of the outbreaks in Brooklyn and Queens.
"I don't think the public understands that there's a citywide trend," he said.
Dr. Nash agreed, saying that not adding more data was a missed opportunity by city officials in combating the second wave. "The city has to do everything in their power to have all of us be on the same page and looking at the same information as we make decisions about what to do."
He added: "They have the right data. We just can’t slice and dice it the way we want to."
As an example, he said that although the number of new daily hospitalizations due to COVID has not dramatically increased, it would useful to see an age breakdown of those being hospitalized. Some have theorized that the number of those needing hospital care is lower because the virus's impact had in fact waned due to the wearing of masks or other factors.
Tagged
COVID-19
second wave
coronavirus
data
Elizabeth Kim
Elizabeth Kim is a reporter on the People and Power desk who covers mayoral power. She previously covered the pandemic, housing, redevelopment and public spaces. A native of Queens, she speaks fluent Mandarin. Got a tip? Email [email protected]
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Jacob Dobkin
Jake Dobkin co-founded Gothamist with Jen Chung. In 2019, Jake released Ask a Native New Yorker, a book based on his Gothamist advice column.
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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
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