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“Barely Holding On”: NYC Restaurants Brace For Indoor Dining Pause As Virus Infection Rate Keeps Climbing
By
Ben Yakas
,
Elizabeth Kim
and
Gwynne Hogan
Published Nov 12, 2020
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Scott Lynch / Gothamist
By
Ben Yakas
,
Elizabeth Kim
and
Gwynne Hogan
Published Nov 12, 2020
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New York City restaurants and bars, already decimated by the pandemic, are coming under greater scrutiny as elected officials urge the state and city to put an end to indoor dining as virus infection rates continue to spiral upward.
On Wednesday, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced a curfew order for bars and restaurants that will require them to close at 10 p.m. beginning on Friday.
Shortly afterwards, calls began to end indoor dining altogether in New York City. The New York Times published an editorial arguing that Cuomo's latest restrictions did not go far enough and noted the "consistent data from cities across the country that indoor dining can seed outbreaks, which can grow into waves." The editorial board declared, "New York cannot afford to ignore that data."
Those studies were based on cellphone mobility data in 10 cities between March and May, when restaurants in several cities outside of New York were not necessarily closed or limited. NYC officials, including public health senior adviser Dr. Jay Varma, have stated that in over half of the new cases, "we don't have a way to directly attribute their source of infection. And that's a concern."
As of Thursday, the city's seven-day positivity rate was 2.6%, marking the 13th day in a row of increases and the highest the positivity has been since early June.
Mark Levine, a Manhattan City Councilmember who chairs the health committee, was among a group of elected officials pushing for the closure of indoor dining. On Thursday, he told Gothamist that that cases were now "moving too fast."
"There’s plenty of data that shows the risk of indoor dining," Levine said. "If you have an indoor setting where people are not wearing masks, and where they are talking and laughing, those are ingredients for high risk."
On Twitter, both New York City Comptroller Scott Stringer, who is planning to run for mayor next year, and State Senator Brad Hoylman of Manhattan said it was time to put a stop to indoor dining.
A closure of indoor dining would deal yet another devastating blow to an industry that has been integral to the city's economy. Many restaurants have already been forced to close for good while others are scraping by. Since the end of September, city restaurants have been allowed to open at 25% capacity, less than the 50% capacity permitted in other parts of the state. Owners have said that takeout and outdoor dining, while popular, will not be enough to sustain their businesses through the winter.
On Thursday, restaurant owners were bracing for a possible full closure.
Because of all the rules and restrictions, Nick Daperas, the owner of Esperanto, a Latin fusion restaurant in Alphabet City, said he can only fit about 18 or 19 people inside compared to 75 normally.
Daperas told Gothamist on Thursday that he estimates that he has lost tens of thousands of dollars every month since reopening. "A lot of people aren't spending as much either with everything going on, it's definitely tough to make ends meet," he said.
Based on what he has heard from politicians this week, he was pessimistic about the immediate future.
"I personally think they're going to close us, it's somewhat similar to the last time," he said. "Last time, they closed without letting us know last second. It's thousands of dollars down the drain, and it's already hard to make money now, so if you lose all your inventory and you're closed for a certain amount of time, it's rough."
Jackie Arenas, general manager of Lady Bird and Saramsam
Gwynne Hogan/Gothamist
Jackie Arenas, a general manager at Lady Bird and Saramsam in the East Village, said he was also expecting bad news, but was also trying to stay positive.
"We're planning [as if] it will probably close down, the way spikes are going," he said. "I appreciate the things Cuomo has been doing to get ahead of everything, but we think it's going to come to a close sometime soon."
"We think it won't be for long, we think it'll be for a month or two, and we think next year will be better," he added.
Andrew Rigie, executive director of the NYC Hospitality Alliance which represents thousands of businesses, said that the state has not provided any data to back their claims that indoor dining is linked with the recent upticks.
"Restaurants around the rest of the state have been open at 50% since June, and the numbers continued going down," he said. "Public health and safety have to be paramount, but decisions also have to be based on science."
Many in the beleaguered restaurant industry have been hoping for the passing of the RESTAURANTS Act, which has been folded into the HEROES Act and would create a $120 billion fund to aid small and locally-owned restaurants. Despite House Democrats passing a version of that in September, President Donald Trump stopped all negotiations on that much-needed stimulus bill to focus on his Supreme Court nominee in October, and the White House has shown no indication it will resume talks now.
"Restaurant owners are in a panic, they were barely holding on as it was, and now limiting their hours will make it even more difficult to survive," Rigie said. "Any call to close restaurants further must be coupled with the demand for stimulus to these small businesses."
Vlad Gringerg, a manager at The Organic Grill in the East Village, said they've been making 30 percent of regular profits for months. "People are so spooked, now everyone is apprehensive to sit inside, and I have no funds to build a house outside for people to sit," he said about adjusting for outdoor seating in winter. "If the city is operating on the premise that we have to stop working, let them pay us. They pay union workers if they're not working, so how are we different? Just because we are all independent businesses? It's just not fair."
While the city and state have not offered any new data showing a specific connection between indoor dining and the surge in COVID cases, a report from Minnesota suggested some logic to the 10 p.m. curfew. “After 9 p.m., when we contact trace, the numbers are doubling,” Governor Tim Walz said during a press conference on Tuesday. “People are getting more lax, especially when alcohol is involved.”
And experts closer to home say that closing indoor dining is a smart strategy to head off what increasingly looks like a second wave hitting the city.
Dr. Denis Nash, an epidemiology professor at CUNY, noted that the city's contact tracing initiative had not shown the extent to which indoor dining was contributing to the surge in cases.
Nonetheless he added, "I would err on the side of caution and assume that indoor dining is contributing to spread. If they wanted to slow things down, stopping indoor dining would be a reasonable step to take."
Epidemiologist Dr. Jessica Justman, of Columbia University, said she previously believed that the city could maintain a small level of indoor dining, but the citywide rising positivity rate and new micro-clusters across the five boroughs has made her change her mind.
"Once I heard it was 60-something micro clusters, I thought let’s move. Why wait?" Justman asked. "When you spend all this time thinking about it and not acting on it, you lose your advantage. I’m still optimistic in many respects that it’s not going to be as bad as March and April, but I think at the same time we have to act on all of that experience and move forward with these restrictions."
Vlad Gringerg, manager of The Organic Grill
Gwynne Hogan/Gothamist
In another complicating factor, the ongoing operation of restaurants threatens to pit the industry against public school families, who are facing looming school shutdowns. Mayor Bill de Blasio has said that he would close schools should the average positivity go above 3%. Experts have scrutinized that criteria, saying that it is arbitrary rather than based on evidence that schools are driving infections.
"It would be outrageous if we close schools and leave indoor dining open," Levine said. "That’s clearly backwards priorities."
Mayor de Blasio, who has long seemed more hesitant about bringing indoor dining back than the governor, told reporters at a press conference on Thursday that the ball is in Cuomo's court: "Indoor dining is something the state has to make that ultimate decision, obviously. It's an area I've always said we have to look at really, really carefully because of what we've seen around the world."
The NYC Hospitality Alliance released a new report today that found 88 percent of respondents could not pay full rent in October, an increase from previous months’ reports, and a signal that the industry remains in dire straits even before this week's curfew announcement. An audit released last month by state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli suggested that well over a hundred thousand jobs in the industry may be lost in the next six months, as well as a third or half of NYC's restaurants and bars.
Rigie believes this makes it all the more urgent to pass legislation to aid restaurants and bars now, before more drastic measures are taken. "Pay restaurants and bars and workers to stay shut," Rigie said. "This is just wreaking havoc on people's lives. It's ruining them. The financial and emotional toll this is having cannot be understated."
Tagged
COVID-19
pandemic
coronavirus
indoor dining
restaurants
Ben Yakas
Ben Yakas is a former Gothamist reporter.
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Elizabeth Kim
Elizabeth Kim is a reporter on the People and Power desk who covers mayoral power. She previously covered the pandemic, housing, redevelopment and public spaces. A native of Queens, she speaks fluent Mandarin. Got a tip? Email [email protected]
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Gwynne Hogan
Gwynne Hogan is a former Gothamist reporter.
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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
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