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Extreme NYC Summer Heat Could Kill Thousands Annually By 2080

By

Miranda Katz

Published Jun 23, 2016

Modified Jun 23, 2016

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Brent / Flickr

By

Miranda Katz

Published Jun 23, 2016

Modified Jun 23, 2016

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On a cloudy June day like today, it's easy to forget that within just a few weeks, we'll all be slowly roasting in the convection ovens that were once subway platforms, as summer 2016 looks to top last year's record temperatures. And it's only going to get worse: according to new research from Columbia University, unless global emissions are reduced significantly and New Yorkers are able to adapt to higher temperatures, over 3,300 people could suffer heat-related deaths every year in the city by the 2080s.

That's the worst case scenario projected in a study published today. It assumes that the city's population will continue to grow, but not adapt to rising temperatures—and that's a real risk, the researchers warn, as air conditioning, arguably the biggest tool for adaptation, is already so ubiquitous in the city. That said, if the city expands its number of cooling systems and creates a more advanced system to warn residents about dangerously high temperatures, the number of heat-related deaths could be brought down to 2,271 under a "low adaptation" scenario—and to 804 under a "high adaptation" scenario, which we can only imagine looks something like this 1960s plan to encapsulate Midtown Manhattan in a climate-controlled dome.

Not every scenario projected in the study is quite that grim: for instance, if New York is able to achieve a "high adaptation" scenario and keep the population's size and age exactly consistent with 2010 levels, then we might be able to keep the number of annual heat-related deaths at 167. For comparison, the 2006 heatwave in New York City was a contributing factor in 140 deaths.

If we can't quite manage to stop population growth, there's still some hope. Elisaveta Petkova, the lead researcher on the study, told Scientific American that over time, "people become more resilient to heat...We don't know exactly why."

This news comes a year after the New York City Panel on Climate Change (of which two of this study's authors are members) released a report that found mean annual temperatures in the city could increase by as much as 8.8 degrees Fahrenheit, compared to a total increase of 3.4 degrees between 1900 and 2013. By that point, sea levels will likely have risen between 18 and 29 inches, washing away the Rockaways, Red Hook, and plenty more of the city's coastal areas. We'll also be able to look forward to an increase in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, asthma, air pollution, and diseases spread by ticks, mosquitos, food, and water.

Upon the release of that report, the city announced the implementation of several new initiatives to combat the effects of climate change, including a flood protection system on the Lower East Side, an expanded program to paint building roofs with cooling reflective paint, and the funneling of $450 million into the construction of levees in Midland Beach and on Staten Island's East Shore. The city's also pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050.

At the international level, nearly 200 countries have agreed to hold global warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Still, some researchers have argued that the Paris Climate agreement doesn't set an ambitious enough goal, and it'll take a more drastic reduction in emissions to keep antarctic ice sheets from melting completely and turning New York, along with other coastal cities, into Atlantis.

In case that's not nihilistic enough for you, here are a few more things to look forward to in the next century:

Happy Thursday!

Tagged

climate change

global warming

heat wave

Miranda Katz

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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations

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