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The Hotter It Gets, The More Likely Zika In NYC Becomes
By
Miranda Katz
Published Mar 17, 2016
Modified Mar 17, 2016
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Andrew Monaghan / NCAR
By
Miranda Katz
Published Mar 17, 2016
Modified Mar 17, 2016
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Here's some sobering global warming news for you: last year was the second-hottest year on record, last month was the hottest February ever, and there is a sizable chance that this summer will be warmer than normal—which means that there's a better chance of the Zika virus-carrying mosquito making its way to New York City by June, according to a new study in the Public Library of Science.
Warmer temperatures also speed up the reproductive cycles of mosquitos, earlier research has found. Plus, the warmer the air, the less time the virus needs to incubate in a mosquito before it can be transmitted to a human.
This latest study used models of projected meteorological conditions to assess whether the climates in 50 U.S. cities could become hospitable to the Aedes aegypti mosquito over the course of the year. It found that while there's currently virtually no risk of the mosquito becoming abundant in New York in the coming few months, that might change in June, when there could be a low to moderate abundance of the virus-carrying insect, and from July to October, that abundance could be moderate to high. That's taking into account the fact that there's a 40-45 percent chance that this summer will be warmer than usual.
That Aedes aegypti mosquito that has been spreading Zika virus in many Latin American and Caribbean countries isn't native to New York, as city health officials have been emphasizing, though the city does have the Aedes albopictus mosquito, which has been known to transmit the virus elsewhere. That said, if an Aedes aegypti mosquito were to stowaway on a flight from Rio to JFK this August—not an uncommon scenario—and find itself in a hospitable climate, it could begin spreading Zika virus here. The size of the dot over each city on the map above indicates how many travelers arrive from countries on the CDC Zika travel advisory, and New York, along with Miami, Atlanta, and Los Angeles, is one of the biggest hubs.
There have been 18 reported cases of Zika virus in New York City to date, all of which originated abroad in Zika-affected countries. In February, the city's Deputy Mayor for Health and Human Services said that she was "cautiously optimistic that we're not going to have to deal with local Zika transmission from mosquitoes" come spring and summer. The Department of Health and Mental Hygiene didn't immediately respond to request for comment on this latest study, but we'll update if they do.
In most people, Zika virus is quite mild: just one in five will show symptoms, and those symptoms include fever, rash, joint pain, and conjunctivitis. But the WHO declared Zika an international public health emergency last month, after some research showed a link between Zika virus in pregnant women and microcephaly or Guillan-Barre syndrome in their newborns. That link is not confirmed, and other studies have suggested that the risk of Zika virus causing birth defects is quite low.
The study notably doesn't account for mosquito control methods, which the city says it is actively looking into for if or when Zika-carrying mosquitos arrive in New York. One of the study's coauthors acknowledged this, saying that "even if the virus is transmitted here in the continental U.S., a quick response can reduce its impact." So there's really no immediate cause for panic—over Zika, that is. Our rapidly warming planet is another story entirely.
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aedes aegypti
aedes albopictus
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zika
Zika virus
Miranda Katz
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