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Is NYC Way Overdue For A Hurricane?

By

Ben Yakas

Published Jun 1, 2011

Modified Jun 1, 2011

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Rhode Island after the 1938 New England Hurricane, which was responsible for killing 60 people in the NYC area

 

National Weather Service

By

Ben Yakas

Published Jun 1, 2011

Modified Jun 1, 2011

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The devastating tornadoes in Joplin, Missouri, which were responsible for killing at least 142 people, were yet another reminder of the cruel indifference of the weather. And though it may seem like a midwest/southern problem, it really isn't: don't start panicking yet, but MSNBC finds that NYC is the 3rd most vulnerable and overdue city for a hurricane. And we don't think they're talking about appearances from Rubin Carter.

Despite it being a rare occurrence in these parts, this is the second year in a row meteorologists have warned that NYC will likely face a hurricane in the near future—and will be incredibly hard to evacuate, if it came to that. According to the United States Landfalling Hurricane Probability Project, there is a greater than 90 percent probability that NYC/Long Island will be hit with a major hurricane (category 3 or more) in the next 50 years.

There have only been a very few number of direct hits in the past 200 years: the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane killed 17 people, and a category one hurricane came onshore between Coney Island and JFK in 1893, causing structural damage all over (it even passed through Brooklyn). Worst of all was the New England Hurricane of 1938, a category 3 hurricane which made landfall in Suffolk County and was responsible for killing over 60 people in NY. Since then, there have been virtually no direct hits in the city by hurricanes. (Here's a look back at Hurricane Donna's effects on the city in the 1960s.)

According to Professor Scott A. Mandia, a massive hurricane would be extra costly for NYC residents, with more than $2.3 billion worth of coastal property in danger. The New York City Office of Emergency Management has created coastal storm response procedures in anticipation of the weather. Despite that, MSNBC is even more grim about our personal readiness: "Given the already-complacent population in New York City, there is one other aspect of northeastern U.S. hurricanes that make them so dangerous. They are usually moving quickly, and a day or two prior to striking they often lurk more than a thousand miles away."

But really, what's more likely: a hurricane hitting Manhattan, or the Knicks winning a championship? Actually...don't answer that.

Tagged

hurricane

natural disaster

overdue

storm

tornado

weather

Ben Yakas

Ben Yakas is a former Gothamist reporter.

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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations

Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations

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