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Economists Stick a Fork in New York, Declaring City Done
By
John Del Signore
Published Feb 16, 2009
Modified Feb 16, 2009
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By
John Del Signore
Published Feb 16, 2009
Modified Feb 16, 2009
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Remember the fun times camping out on line for concert tickets as teenager? Well, someday soon we might get to relive those precious moments, except this time for bread. The Times recently asked five economic experts to give their forecast for New York City's near future, and if you like a little doom to go with your gloom, you're going to love their predictions. (Spoiler: barrels with suspenders are poised to become the new Uggs.)
John Tepper Marlin, the former chief economist for the City Comptroller’s Office, is afraid the current crisis will be even worse than the Great Depression, because "the interconnectedness" of the world economy is making this crash reverberate more globally. As for New York, the city could be in for worse suffering than the financial crisis of the 1970s, because at least back then the state’s fiscal health was solid. This time, "if anything, the state is definitely in much worse shape."
But Charles Brecher, Director of Research at the Citizens Budget Commission, thinks the city will avoid utter annihilation because of the financial controls put in place in response to crisis in the '70s. He also cites Bloomberg's property tax increase in 2003 as a crucial source of revenue. However, Nicole Gelinas, a senior fellow at The Manhattan Institute, fears that money could evaporate quickly once property owners start seeking property tax appeals and reassessments.
The one Pollyanna among these Debbie Downers is Carol O’Cleireacain, a finance commissioner in the Dinkins administration, which wasn't exactly synonymous with fiscal strength. She has faith that the economy may start to grow again in the fourth quarter of 2009, and contends that New York will always be "a magnet for talent: for smart, enterprising, ambitious, innovative people, not only from this country but from around the world. Everyone wants to be here." Unfortunately, being in our parents' basement is a lot cheaper (assuming they still have a home).
The one potential ray of light is that maybe these ambitious newcomers to NYC will now have a better shot at affording an apartment here. A long article in the Atlantic considers how the economic crash may impact various American cities, starting with New York, which could see its creative economy reenergized as the economy changes course. Reporter Richard Florida recalls a conversation "some years ago" with Jane Jacobs, who told him "When a place gets boring, even the rich people leave."
Tagged
depression
future
new york
nyc
recession
John Del Signore
Originally from the Albany area, John Del Signore has called NYC home since 1995. In addition to his thousands of meticulously-crafted bespoke blog posts for Gothamist, his writing has also been published in The Awl, Deadspin, The Nervous Breakdown, and performed at The Brick Theater in Brooklyn.
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Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
Gothamist is funded by sponsors and member donations
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